腾讯控股：私域流量撬动电商杠杆

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, with a target price of HKD 397.82 (RMB 363.51) [80] Core Views - The report highlights the potential of WeChat's live-streaming e-commerce, emphasizing its unique traffic advantages compared to Douyin and Kuaishou, particularly due to its diversified traffic sources including private domains (group chats, private moments) and public domains (Video Account) [2] - WeChat's live-streaming e-commerce GMV is expected to grow significantly, driven by both private and public domain traffic, with Video Account being the largest traffic source [2][5] - The report estimates the long-term GMV ceiling for Video Account at 2.07 trillion RMB, based on assumptions including DAU of 680 million, feed stream density of 2.5 times per minute, average browsing time of 79.4 minutes, live-streaming loading rate of 8.4%, conversion rate of 0.4%, and average order value of 125 RMB [5] Private Domain GMV - The private domain is expected to contribute 1.3 trillion RMB in GMV, including 800 billion RMB from existing mini-program merchants and 480 billion RMB from the new "Shop Share Alliance" model [5][7][21] - The "Shop Share Alliance" model allows merchants to share their shops through personal WeChat and enterprise WeChat, enhancing exposure and conversion rates [21] Public Domain GMV - The public domain, primarily driven by Video Account, is expected to contribute 2.07 trillion RMB in GMV [5][10] - Video Account's GMV is calculated based on factors such as DAU, average browsing time, feed stream density, live-streaming loading rate, conversion rate, and average order value [5] Organizational Changes - Tencent announced a significant organizational restructuring in May 2024, integrating the Video Account live-streaming e-commerce team into the WeChat Open Platform team, which is expected to accelerate the conversion of mini-program GMV to Video Account [14] - This restructuring aims to resolve conflicts between the mini-program and Video Account teams, potentially leading to faster GMV conversion and increased revenue from technical service commissions [14] Content Ecosystem and Creators - Video Account's DAU growth is closely tied to the number of content creators, with current creators primarily coming from public accounts (17%), Douyin (26%), and Kuaishou (21%) [34][35] - The report estimates that Video Account could reach 680 million DAU, driven by 186 million content creators, with a significant portion coming from WeChat's native users and mid-to-long-tail creators from Douyin and Kuaishou [112][113] - Video Account's content ecosystem is expected to be more knowledge-oriented compared to Douyin's entertainment-focused content, with a projected distribution of 65% life-related content, 17% entertainment, 1% news, and 17% knowledge-related content [130] Monetization and Revenue Growth - Video Account's e-commerce business is expected to enter a rapid growth phase starting in 2024, with low marginal costs driving profit elasticity [80] - The report forecasts Tencent's IFRS net profit for 2024-2026 to be 170.8 billion, 196.9 billion, and 226.5 billion RMB, respectively, with non-IFRS net profit expected to be 216.2 billion, 251.1 billion, and 285.2 billion RMB [80]