Q1业绩超预期，现金流更佳

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 197.15 RMB [2][3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance was solid, with stable profitability despite a 10.4% YoY decline in revenue to 79.8 billion RMB [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7% YoY to 10.5 billion RMB, while non-GAAP net profit rose 18.6% YoY to 9.247 billion RMB [1] - Gross margin improved to 26.4%, up 5.2 percentage points YoY, and net margin increased to 14.0%, up 2.7 percentage points YoY [1] - Operating cash flow surged 35% YoY to 28.36 billion RMB, with cash on hand reaching 288.6 billion RMB [1] - The company's global market share in power batteries remained strong at 38.4% in Jan-Feb 2024, with overseas market share at 26.3% [1] - The company's energy storage battery shipments grew 36% YoY to 19GWh, accounting for 20% of total shipments [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 391.658 billion RMB, a slight decline of 2% YoY, with a recovery to 10% growth in 2025E [2] - Net profit for 2024E is forecasted at 52.668 billion RMB, a 19% YoY increase, with further growth of 23% in 2025E [2] - EPS is expected to rise from 11.97 RMB in 2024E to 17.59 RMB in 2026E [2] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 19% from 2024E to 2026E [6] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 26.4% in 2024E to 28.3% in 2026E [6] Market Position and Growth - The company maintained its leading position in the global power battery market with a 48.93% domestic market share in Q1 2024 [1] - Power battery shipments in Q1 2024 reached 72GWh, a 25% YoY increase, accounting for 76% of total shipments [1] - The company launched new energy storage integration products, which are expected to drive global order growth [1] Valuation and Projections - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decline from 16.5x in 2024E to 11.2x in 2026E, indicating attractive valuation [2][6] - The P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 3.5x in 2024E to 2.2x in 2026E [2][6] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to drop from 72x in 2024E to 57x in 2026E, reflecting improving profitability [6] Operational Efficiency - The company's inventory management strategy and lower raw material prices contributed to strong cash flow performance [1] - Operating cash flow is projected to grow from 73.518 billion RMB in 2024E to 100.529 billion RMB in 2026E [6] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is expected to improve from 88.6% in 2024E to 69.1% in 2026E, indicating better financial health [6]