Tesla(US:TSLA) First Shanghai Securities·2024-07-29 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Tesla (TSLA) with a target price of $290.00, representing a 31.67% upside from the current price of $220.25 [1][3] Core Views - Tesla's Q2 2024 performance showed a 5% YoY decline in deliveries to 444,000 units and a 14% YoY decline in production to 411,000 units [1] - Total revenue for Q2 2024 was $25.5 billion, a 2% YoY increase, but below market expectations [1] - Automotive revenue stood at $19.88 billion, while energy generation and storage revenue reached $3.01 billion, with energy storage deployments at 9.4 GWh [1] - Operating margin declined by 3.33 percentage points YoY to 6.3%, and net income dropped 45% YoY to $1.48 billion [1] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $1.34 billion, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $30.72 billion [1] Automotive Business - Automotive gross margin remained stable at 18.5% in Q2 2024, but excluding ZEV credits, it was 14.6%, impacted by price reductions, Berlin factory upgrades, and lower deliveries [1][9] - Tesla's global inventory days decreased by 36% QoQ to 18 days, with a production-to-delivery ratio of 108% [7] - The company expects automotive margins to improve in future quarters as the refreshed Model 3 and Cybertruck production ramps up [11] Energy Business - Energy storage gross margin remained strong at 24.6%, with deployments reaching a record 9.4 GWh, up 157% YoY [1][5] - The company anticipates significant capacity expansion from its Shanghai factory, potentially doubling or tripling current output [1] FSD and AI Developments - FSD V12 has accumulated over 600 million miles, with Tesla's neural network training servers expected to reach 90,000 H100-level GPUs by year-end [1][15] - Tesla has made progress in regulatory approvals for FSD in China, following Elon Musk's meeting with Chinese officials and collaboration with Baidu on autonomous driving maps [15] Future Growth Drivers - Tesla expects to reach 3 million units of peak production capacity by 2025, driven by new model launches and capacity expansions [15] - The company plans to unveil the Model 2 or $25,000 vehicle in October 2024, with production expected to begin in 2025 [17] - Cybertruck production has reached 1,400 units per week, with plans for China and EU-specific versions [17] Valuation and Financial Projections - The report forecasts Tesla's deliveries to reach 1.82 million in 2024, 2.30 million in 2025, and 2.91 million in 2026 [1] - Revenue is projected to grow to $103.3 billion in 2024, $133.5 billion in 2025, and $200.2 billion in 2026 [1] - The DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 12% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, resulting in a target price of $290.00 [18]