Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit increase of 63% in the first half of 2024, driven by early shipments and improved operational leverage from increased production capacity utilization [4][5] - The company forecasts a revenue of 750 million, up 7.7% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to decline due to a higher proportion of lower-priced sports orders, despite an increase in shipment volume [4] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit margin of approximately 11.7% in the first half of 2024, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1.84 billion, and $2.03 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.7%, 11%, and 10% [4][5] - The gross margin for 2023 is reported at 24.6%, with expectations for further improvement in 2024 [5][7] Market Dynamics - The sports category is the largest segment for the company, accounting for 43.2% of revenue in 2023, with a forecasted recovery in orders for the second half of 2024 [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from strong growth in specific product lines, including basketball shoes and retro styles, as a supplier for Nike [4][5] Valuation - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10-11x for 2024, translating to a fair value range of HKD 15.94 to HKD 17.53 per share [4] - The expected dividend yield is projected to reach 9.0% based on the closing price on July 26 [4]
九兴控股：发布盈利预喜，预计24H1净利润增63%