九典制药：凝胶贴膏赋能发展，多点开花未来可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of RMB 26.40 for the company's stock, with the current market price at RMB 22.85, indicating a potential upside [4]. Core Insights - The company has achieved rapid growth in its performance, with revenue increasing from RMB 5.35 billion in 2017 to RMB 26.93 billion in 2023, representing a CAGR of 31%. The net profit rose from RMB 0.69 billion to RMB 3.68 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 32% [58]. - The company's core product, the Loxoprofen Sodium Gel Patch, is expected to maintain a favorable competitive landscape in the next 2-3 years due to regulatory challenges for competitors [52]. - The company is expanding its market presence by increasing sales in outpatient settings, with outpatient sales rising from 5.84% in 2023 to 17.66% in Q1 2024 [68]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2001, the company has developed a comprehensive industrial chain from high-end raw materials to formulations, covering various pharmaceutical sectors [23]. Performance Growth - The company reported a revenue of RMB 26.93 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and a net profit of RMB 3.68 billion, up 36.5% year-on-year [58]. Product Development - The Loxoprofen Sodium Gel Patch generated revenue of RMB 15.47 billion in 2023, with expected revenues of RMB 15.84 billion, RMB 18.23 billion, and RMB 21.51 billion for 2024-2026, reflecting growth rates of 2.4%, 15.0%, and 18.0% respectively [49]. - The Ketoprofen Gel Patch, which entered the national medical insurance directory in 2023, is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 2.0 billion, RMB 4.0 billion, and RMB 5.4 billion from 2024 to 2026 [50]. Market Dynamics - The company has been included in multiple centralized procurement programs, leading to a price reduction of approximately 25% for its products, which is expected to optimize sales expenses and enhance hospital admissions [35][49]. - The outpatient market is anticipated to become a new growth point, with significant expansion efforts already showing results [68]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of RMB 30.94 billion for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [78].