海通发展：扩大船队规模，强化自身盈利能力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is to "continue to pay attention" based on the potential for increased operational income through strategic acquisition and leasing of second-hand ships [7][31]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 500 million, 748 million, and 900 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55, 0.82, and 0.98 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 17x, 11x, and 10x [7][31]. - The shipping market is experiencing a recovery, with significant increases in the import volumes of Brazilian iron ore and Guinean bauxite, which is expected to enhance the company's operational efficiency and profitability [6][31]. - The company is optimizing its fleet and managing costs effectively, resulting in a substantial year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024 [31]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - The company anticipates revenues of 1,705.34 million, 3,120.69 million, 4,218.30 million, and 4,895.45 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 82.99%, 35.17%, and 16.05% [8][25]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 185.04 million, 500.16 million, 747.93 million, and 900.19 million yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 170.30%, 49.54%, and 20.36% [8][25]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 5.09% in 2023 to 12.42% in 2024, reaching 16.00% and 16.59% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [8][25]. Market Dynamics - The global shipping market is recovering, with the Baltic Sea Index (BSI) average expected to be 1,430.47, 1,573.52, and 1,573.52 for the years 2024 to 2026 [10][12]. - The supply-demand balance in the dry bulk shipping market is tightening, with a forecasted supply-demand gap of 0.8% in 2024 and -2.2% in 2025, which is expected to support high freight rates [32]. Operational Strategy - The company is enhancing its fleet capacity through the acquisition of second-hand ships and long-term leasing, with an expected increase in controlled bulk carrier capacity of 20%, 15%, and 10% from 2024 to 2026 [12][31]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its global route layout and improving operational efficiency to reduce costs and strengthen profitability [6][31].