Western Mining(SH:601168) EBSCN·2024-07-30 06:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 24.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.621 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year [2][3] - The increase in performance is primarily attributed to the rise in copper concentrate production and prices, although lower investment income and increased asset impairment losses slightly dragged down the results [3] - The company has consistently provided cash dividends, totaling 8.341 billion yuan, which accounts for 53.55% of the cumulative distributable profits, with an average dividend yield exceeding 6% over the past three years [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Performance - In H1 2024, copper concentrate prices increased by 13% year-on-year, and production rose by 42% year-on-year [3] - Investment income was -241 million yuan, primarily due to futures hedging losses, while asset impairment losses amounted to -233 million yuan, mainly from fixed asset impairments [3] Production - The production of major products exceeded planned targets, with copper concentrate production at 85,200 tons (up 42% year-on-year) and zinc concentrate production at 53,000 tons (down 12% year-on-year) [3] Project Progress - The expansion of the Yulong Copper Mine is progressing steadily, with various preliminary procedures completed [3] Industry Outlook - The copper supply-demand gap is expected to continue widening, with projected deficits of 390,000 tons and 640,000 tons for 2024 and 2025, respectively [3] - The report suggests that copper prices need to rise to between 12,000 and 14,000 USD per ton to stimulate potential supply growth [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The copper price forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 10,000, 11,000, and 11,000 USD per ton, respectively [3] - Expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 3.4 billion, 4.7 billion, and 5.4 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 37%, and 15% [3]