HUATIE(603300) 光大证券·2024-07-30 07:31Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating [4] Core Views - The company has completed a change in control, with Hainan Haikong becoming the largest shareholder, holding approximately 13.96% of the shares, while the original controlling shareholder's stake has been reduced to 8.98% [1] - The transaction was completed at a premium of approximately 48% over the current price, indicating strong confidence in the company's potential [1] - The transition from a private enterprise to a state-owned enterprise is expected to lower financing costs, potentially reducing annual financial expenses by RMB 59-118 million if financing costs decrease by 0.5-1.0 percentage points [2] - The company may accelerate its expansion through a "light asset" model, reducing capital expenditure pressure and leveraging its operational efficiency advantages [2] - The company's ROE in 2023 was 14.5%, with an ROIC of 9.17%, reflecting strong operational efficiency despite declining rental prices [2] - The state-owned background is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness and stability in the industry, particularly during a period of industry consolidation [10] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,278 million in 2022 to RMB 10,899 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 34.66% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from RMB 641 million in 2022 to RMB 1,587 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 26.22% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.46 in 2022 to RMB 0.81 in 2026 [3] - ROE (attributable to the parent company) is projected to increase from 14.01% in 2022 to 17.20% in 2026 [3] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 10x in 2022 to 6x in 2026, reflecting improved valuation metrics [3] Industry Context - The equipment rental industry is facing pressure from declining rental prices and increased competition, leading to accelerated industry consolidation [10] - Leading companies with strong network effects, reasonable equipment structures, and bargaining power with upstream suppliers are expected to maintain a competitive advantage [10] - The company's state-owned background positions it well to navigate industry challenges and potentially increase its market share through a "light asset" model [10] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is RMB 9.439 billion, with a total share capital of 1.971 billion shares [6] - The stock's price range over the past year has been between RMB 4.69 and RMB 7.07 [6] - The stock's turnover rate over the past three months is 69.78% [6]