CSICL(601989) 国投证券·2024-07-30 09:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a target price of 6.58 CNY, based on a conservative PB of 1.8 [4][3]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing shipbuilding cycle, with a focus on ship assembly and supporting industries, leading to a potential release of profit elasticity [1][3]. - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a significant cycle characterized by rising prices and demand, benefiting leading shipbuilders like the company [2][3]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in new orders and backlog, indicating strong market demand and operational capacity [11][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading shipbuilding and design enterprise in China, with major operations in marine defense, marine development equipment, marine transportation equipment, and ship repair [1][11]. - In 2023, the company secured new orders worth 757 billion CNY, with a year-end backlog of 1,506 billion CNY, reflecting a 37.7% year-on-year increase [11][14]. Shipbuilding Cycle - The shipbuilding industry is in a favorable cycle due to supply-side adjustments and increasing demand for new vessels, particularly as older ships reach the end of their operational life [20][22]. - The global shipyard capacity has decreased significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, leading to a seller's market where new orders are increasingly concentrated among top shipbuilders [20][21]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 553 billion CNY, 637 billion CNY, and 735 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with corresponding net profits of 14 billion CNY, 32.5 billion CNY, and 57.5 billion CNY, indicating substantial growth [3][4]. - The company’s profitability is expected to improve significantly as it delivers high-value ships and benefits from increased production efficiency [18][33]. Market Dynamics - The new ship price index has been rising, with specific vessel types like Capesize bulk carriers and VLCCs seeing significant price increases [26][27]. - The company’s marine transportation equipment segment is expected to see a rise in revenue contribution as it capitalizes on the current shipbuilding cycle [15][33].