ASMPT(00522) 光大证券·2024-07-30 10:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ASMPT (0522.HK) [2] Core Views - The semiconductor recovery is slower than expected, with traditional packaging and SMT (Surface Mount Technology) businesses under pressure, while advanced packaging driven by AI is seen as a long-term growth point for the company [1][2] - The company reported Q2 2024 revenue of USD 427 million (HKD 3.34 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5%, exceeding previous guidance [1] - The semiconductor solutions segment saw revenue of USD 213 million, up 21% year-on-year, while SMT revenue was USD 215 million, down 25% year-on-year [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2024 adjusted net profit was HKD 137 million, down 56% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 4.1% and EPS of HKD 0.33 [1] - The company’s guidance for Q3 2024 revenue is between USD 370 million and USD 430 million, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4% [1] Order Trends - Total new orders in Q2 2024 were USD 399 million, down 2.4% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a decline in SMT orders [1] - New orders for the semiconductor business increased by 12% quarter-on-quarter to USD 220 million, driven by advanced packaging solutions [1] Long-term Growth Drivers - The demand for AI chips and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is expected to accelerate shipments of TCB (Thermal Compression Bonding) equipment in 2025/2026 [1] - The company is optimistic about the growth of its advanced packaging business, particularly in TCB and HBM equipment, due to strong customer demand and ongoing R&D progress [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down to HKD 5.65 billion, HKD 13.41 billion, and HKD 20.04 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -21.0%, +137.4%, and +49.4% respectively [1][2] - The report highlights the potential for significant revenue growth in advanced packaging, despite short-term pressures on traditional packaging and SMT businesses [1]