海大集团：2024年中报点评报告：饲料主营稳健增长，生猪养殖景气提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's feed business shows stable growth, and the pig farming sector is experiencing improved profitability. In the first half of 2024, total revenue was 52.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.84%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.125 billion yuan, an increase of 93.15% [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 52.296 billion yuan, down 0.84% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company reached 2.125 billion yuan, up 93.15% year-on-year. The significant profit growth is attributed to an increase in market share and profitability in the feed business, alongside a turnaround in the farming segment [2][3] Feed Sales Performance - The company experienced a counter-cyclical growth in feed sales, achieving a total feed sales volume of approximately 11.79 million tons (including 0.98 million tons for internal use), which represents a year-on-year increase of about 8.5%. The external sales volume was 10.81 million tons, up 8% year-on-year, further enhancing market share. Notably, external sales of aquatic feed increased by about 10%, and poultry feed by about 14%, while pig feed saw a decline of 7% [3] Downstream Farming Development - In the pig farming sector, the company focused on enhancing team capabilities and its own breeding system, leading to improved management and reduced overall farming costs. In the first half of the year, approximately 2.7 million pigs were sold, marking a turnaround to profitability. In aquatic farming, the main species raised include special aquatic products like live fish and shrimp, with a recovery in live fish prices contributing to reduced losses in this segment. The company plans to rationalize farming scale and enhance market circulation capabilities to mitigate risks [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - Considering the impact of fluctuations in feed raw material prices, the revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 130.432 billion yuan, 143.933 billion yuan, and 162.542 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.889 billion yuan, 4.506 billion yuan, and 5.335 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 13 times. The company has shown steady development over the years, with a steady increase in the main feed business, thus maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][5][6]