NHWA(002262) 东吴证券·2024-07-31 02:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 was stable and in line with expectations, with revenue of 2.763 billion yuan (+15.1% YoY) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 629 million yuan (+15.5% YoY) [3] - The company's traditional advantage products, midazolam and etomidate, maintain a leading position in the industry, with midazolam being reclassified as a Class I psychotropic drug from July 1, 2024, which is expected to optimize the competitive landscape and enhance entry barriers [3] - The company has a rich pipeline of R&D projects, with 20 innovative drug projects and 44 generic drug projects in progress, including NH600001 emulsion injection in Phase III clinical trials [3] - The company's newly approved anesthetic products, such as oxycodone, remifentanil, sufentanil, and alfentanil, have shown rapid growth and are the main drivers of current growth [3] - The company's innovation and BD products are expected to gradually contribute to long-term performance growth, with products like oliceridine and antetan expected to reach high sales peaks [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024E is expected to be 5.974 billion yuan (+18.5% YoY), with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.204 billion yuan (+16.13% YoY) [2] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted to be 1.20 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 20.10x [2] - Revenue for 2025E is projected to reach 7.061 billion yuan (+18.2% YoY), with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.409 billion yuan (+16.99% YoY) [2] - EPS for 2025E is expected to be 1.40 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 17.18x [2] - Revenue for 2026E is anticipated to be 8.334 billion yuan (+18.02% YoY), with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.664 billion yuan (+18.11% YoY) [2] - EPS for 2026E is forecasted to be 1.65 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 14.55x [2] Business Segments - Pharmaceutical industry revenue in H1 2024 was 2.359 billion yuan (+14.5% YoY), while commercial pharmaceutical revenue was 359 million yuan (+23.6% YoY) [3] - Anesthetic products revenue was 1.522 billion yuan (+20.0% YoY), psychiatric products revenue was 595 million yuan (+8.2% YoY), neurological products revenue was 80 million yuan (+8.5% YoY), and API revenue was 96 million yuan (+26.6% YoY) [3] R&D and Innovation - R&D expenses in H1 2024 increased by 13% YoY, with 20 innovative drug projects and 44 generic drug projects in progress [3] - NH600001 emulsion injection is in Phase III clinical trials, and other innovative and BD products are expected to contribute to long-term growth [3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 24.02 yuan, with a one-year low/high of 20.64/29.42 yuan [5] - The P/B ratio is 3.59x, with a circulating A-share market value of 21.181 billion yuan and a total market value of 24.202 billion yuan [5] Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 72.8% from 2024E to 2026E [8] - The net profit margin attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be around 20% from 2024E to 2026E [8] - The ROE is expected to be around 16% from 2024E to 2026E [9] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow for 2024E is projected to be 1.233 billion yuan, with capital expenditure of 290 million yuan [9] - Net cash increase for 2024E is expected to be 681 million yuan [9]