新集能源：2024年半年报点评：业绩符合预期，电力业务盈利增强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with expected EPS of 0.97/1.07/1.30 yuan for 2024-2026 and PE ratios of 9/8/7 times based on the closing price on July 30, 2024 [1][9] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 5.985 billion yuan, down 4.40% YoY, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.176 billion yuan, down 10.11% YoY [1] - The decline in coal production and sales in Q2 2024 was the main reason for the performance drop, with coal production down 5.94% YoY and sales down 14.53% YoY [1] - The power generation business showed improved profitability in H1 2024, with a 12.66% YoY increase in power generation and a 29.69% YoY increase in profit for the main operating entity [1] - New power plant projects are progressing well, with the Banji Power Plant Phase II expected to start operation in the second half of the year [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.927 billion yuan, down 12.99% YoY, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 578 million yuan, down 19.03% YoY [1] - The gross profit margin in Q2 2024 was 41.47%, up 1.43 percentage points YoY, while the net profit margin was 19.75%, down 1.47 percentage points YoY [1] - The company's coal unit price in Q2 2024 was 553.63 yuan/ton, up 1.89% YoY, with a unit gross profit of 222.07 yuan/ton and a gross profit margin of 40.11% [1] Future Outlook - The company's coal-power integration business model is expected to maintain high profitability and drive valuation growth [1] - Revenue is forecasted to grow to 13.356 billion yuan in 2024, 14.230 billion yuan in 2025, and 16.122 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to reach 2.506 billion yuan, 2.763 billion yuan, and 3.380 billion yuan respectively [9] - The company's power generation business is expected to continue growing, supported by new power plant projects and stable coal prices [1]