海大集团：公司半年报：竞争加速分化，龙头优势将持续放大

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of RMB 52.3 billion in the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.84% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 93.15% YoY to RMB 2.13 billion [4] - The company's aquatic feed business grew against the market trend, with sales volume increasing by approximately 10% YoY in H1 2024, driven by strong product offerings and comprehensive service capabilities [4] - The company's pig feed sales declined by 7% YoY in H1 2024 due to reduced demand from small-scale farmers, but poultry feed sales increased by 14% YoY [5] - The company's overseas business saw significant growth, with feed sales exceeding 1 million tons, up over 30% YoY, and profitability improved [7] - The company's breeding business turned profitable in H1 2024, with 2.7 million pigs sold, and the overall breeding capacity continues to improve [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 116.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 152.3 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.1% [6] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 2.74 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.82 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.5% [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 8.5% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2026 [6] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.65 in 2023 to RMB 3.50 in 2026 [6] Market and Industry Analysis - The aquatic feed industry faced pressure in H1 2024, with national production declining by 2.4% YoY, but the company outperformed with a 10% sales growth [4] - The company's market share in the aquatic feed sector is expected to further increase in H2 2024 due to favorable market conditions and strategic adjustments [4] - The company's pig feed business is expected to recover in H2 2024 as pig farming profits improve and restocking increases [5] Valuation and Recommendations - The report values the company at a PE range of 20-25x for 2024, implying a fair value range of RMB 55.0-68.8 per share [7] - The company's long-term strategy includes expanding its overseas market and leveraging its technological and operational advantages [7]