百润股份：公司事件点评报告：Q2预调酒略承压，期待威士忌上线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company experienced slight pressure on its performance in Q2, with a focus on managing advertising expenses effectively [2]. - The company is expected to expand its consumer base with the launch of new whiskey products [2][3]. - The revenue for H1 2024 was 1.628 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 402 million yuan, reflecting an 8.36% decline [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 70.08%, showing an increase of 4.19 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is actively promoting new products, including low-sugar and refreshing options, to capture a broader consumer demographic [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 revenue breakdown: 1.431 billion yuan from pre-mixed cocktails and 176 million yuan from food flavorings, with respective year-on-year changes of -1.42% and +7.51% [2]. - Q2 2024 revenue was 826 million yuan, down 7.25% year-on-year, with a net profit of 233 million yuan, a decrease of 7.28% [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow for H1 2024 was 294 million yuan, down 26% year-on-year, while Q2 cash flow was significantly impacted, dropping 93.34% to 22 million yuan [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.80, 0.92, and 1.09 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 18, and 15 times [4]. - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 2.9% for 2024, 13.5% for 2025, and 16.2% for 2026 [5]. - The net profit is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2024, 14.7% in 2025, and 18.3% in 2026 [5]. Channel Performance - H1 2024 revenue from offline channels was 1.430 billion yuan, up 7.03% year-on-year, while digital retail and ready-to-drink channels saw declines of 35.68% and 93.34% respectively [3]. - Regional performance showed that North China and South China had faster revenue growth rates compared to East and West China [3]. Product Development - The company is focusing on the pre-mixed cocktail segment and is strategically developing its whiskey product line to enhance market presence [4]. - New product launches are aimed at diversifying the product matrix and increasing market penetration [2][3].