福田汽车：轻重并举的商用车巨头

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [1][5]. Core Views - Foton Motor is a leading player in the commercial vehicle sector in China, with a market share of 15.7% and sales of 631,000 units in 2023, maintaining its position as the industry leader [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery trend in the heavy truck market over the next 2-3 years [4]. - Foton is actively expanding its presence in overseas markets, with a projected export of 80,000 units in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenue of 56.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 910 million yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 11.4% [4]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 64.5 billion yuan, 71.9 billion yuan, and 77 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.2 billion yuan, 1.6 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.15 yuan, 0.20 yuan, and 0.22 yuan, respectively [5][11]. Business Segmentation - The revenue growth rates for different segments from 2024 to 2026 are projected as follows: - Light trucks: 20%/15%/10% [8]. - Engines: 15%/10%/5% [8]. - Medium and heavy trucks: 10%/10%/5% [8]. - Light passenger vehicles: 15%/10%/5% [8]. - Buses: 15%/10%/5% [8]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-earnings (P/E) method for valuation, suggesting a reasonable value range of 2.87 to 3.17 yuan based on a P/E ratio of 19-21 for 2024 [5][10].