贵州茅台：深度研究报告：酒价逻辑、增长策略与定价范式

Investment Rating - Maintains a target price of 2600 yuan and a "Strong Buy" rating [16] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the pricing paradigm for baijiu is shifting, with growth stability and committed dividend payout ratio becoming key factors [35] - The company has sufficient operational strategies to navigate through the current cycle, focusing on stable and sustainable growth [37] - The report projects a 10% annual growth rate for the next five years, with a potential doubling of investment returns [47] Key Points by Section Dividend Perspective - The dividend yield has surpassed the 10-year government bond yield, and there is room for further improvement in the dividend payout ratio [8][148] Inventory Value - The estimated value of the company's stored liquor exceeds 1.5 trillion yuan, with 29.4 million tons of liquor in inventory, including 1.4 million tons of finished products and 28 million tons of semi-finished products [9] Valuation and Growth - The valuation is expected to recover to 1.2 times the current level, with a potential 20% upside from the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of around 20x [12] - The company's growth is expected to stabilize around 10%, with a projected revenue of 240 billion yuan and profit of 120 billion yuan by 2028 [47] Market and Pricing Strategy - The company maintains control over pricing, with a focus on preventing a collapse in liquor prices and ensuring stability [62] - The retail price of Moutai is anchored around 1499 yuan, close to the minimum wage level, ensuring affordability and market stability [120] Historical Performance and Future Outlook - Historically, Moutai's stock price has shown a strong correlation with liquor prices, with the stock price stabilizing before liquor prices during downturns [15] - The company's future growth is expected to align with GDP growth, with a projected sales growth rate of around 4% over the next decade [131][161] Operational Strategies - The company plans to expand its overseas market, aiming for 10 billion yuan in sales by 2027 [139] - Traditional distributor channels may see price increases, with potential adjustments in the next few years [139] Risk Management - The company has a robust toolkit for technical adjustments to stabilize prices, including dynamic quota adjustments for distributors [89] - The company is prepared to open additional distribution rights in extreme scenarios to manage supply and demand imbalances [167] Financial Projections - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 at 70.30, 78.96, and 87.22 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 2600 yuan [16] - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% over the next five years, reaching 240 billion yuan by 2028 [47]