Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved year-on-year, showcasing its leading advantages at the bottom of the industry cycle [2][3] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 12.687 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.963 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41% [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The sales volume of photovoltaic glass has increased, and profitability has improved year-on-year. The company added two new photovoltaic glass production lines in Wuhu (2*1000t/d) and Malaysia (1200t/d), bringing total capacity to 29,000t/d by the end of June 2024, which led to a 12.2% year-on-year increase in sales volume [3] - The gross margin for photovoltaic glass improved by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year to 21.5% due to lower procurement costs for soda ash and natural gas. However, the gross margin decreased compared to the second half of 2023 due to increased production capacity and weakened downstream component production [3] Market Conditions - In July, the component production continued to weaken, leading to increased inventory and pressure on prices and profitability in the photovoltaic glass industry. The average industry inventory increased by 11.78% month-on-month to 32.6 days, with mainstream prices for 2.0mm glass dropping to HKD 14-14.5 per square meter [4] - The report anticipates that due to the current oversupply in the industry, significant recovery in prices and profitability in the second half of the year is unlikely. However, the exit of outdated production capacity may accelerate, which could help stabilize the market [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on current judgments regarding the photovoltaic glass industry's prices and profitability, the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to HKD 4.276 billion (-14%), HKD 5.364 billion (-14%), and HKD 6.492 billion (-15%) respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8/6/5 times [4][6]
信义光能：盈利能力同比显著改善，景气底部彰显龙头优势