证 券 研 究 报 告 信义光能（00968.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 全球光伏玻璃龙头，业绩底部景气拐点初显 目标价：3.66 港元 （1）光伏玻璃是组件非硅成本中占比最大的环节之一。单瓦价值量约 0.1 元 /W，约占组件整体/非硅成本 16.4%/29.0%。 （2）短期盈利压力下行业产出调降，长期政策调控新增产能收紧。2024 年 5 月至 25 年 2 月，光伏玻璃价格持续下行。盈利压力下，行业进行了密集冷修， 据卓创资讯，2024 年初至 2025 年 3 月，光伏玻璃产能冷修停产规模约 3.2 万 吨/日。2024 年 10 月，水泥玻璃行业产能置换实施办法（2024 年本）删除风 险预警机制表述，政策端产能指标或将趋紧，远期产能布局有望趋于合理。 （3）供需相比其他环节更优，3 月新单价格调涨带动盈利修复。据 Infolink 数 据，截至 2024 年底硅料、硅片、电池、组件、光伏胶膜等环节名义产能已超 过 1000GW；按 2024 年底光伏玻璃在产产能 9.2 万 t/d 测算，年化供应量约 630GW，相比于其他环节更优。随着年后需求启动，叠加抢装需求，3 月 2.0mm 光伏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a low valuation for the company, with a 2025 PE ratio of 14.4 times, which is considered low within the photovoltaic industry chain [4][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in performance in 2024, with revenue dropping by 9.3% to 21.9 billion RMB and net profit plummeting by 73.8% to 1.0 billion RMB due to the photovoltaic glass industry being at a cyclical low [2][4]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability in 2025, driven by an increase in component operating rates and rising demand for photovoltaic glass, alongside a price increase in March 2025 [1][4]. - The company plans to resume production capacity in 2025, with an expected domestic capacity of 4,000 tons per day and new production lines in Indonesia projected to commence in Q1 2026 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 9.3% to 21.9 billion RMB, primarily due to a decline in solar glass sales and a drop in average selling prices, which fell by 18.7% year-on-year [2][4]. - The gross margin decreased by 11 percentage points to 15.8%, and the net margin fell by 11.3 percentage points to 4.6% [2][4]. - The company did not declare a final dividend due to losses in the second half of 2024 [2]. Production Capacity and Market Demand - The company had a total daily melting capacity of 23,200 tons at the end of 2024, down from 25,800 tons at the end of 2023, as several production lines were temporarily shut down during the industry downturn [3]. - With the anticipated recovery in demand, the company plans to restart four production lines in 2025, each with a daily melting capacity of 1,000 tons [3]. - The demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to improve due to increased orders from component manufacturers and a controlled supply-demand relationship, leading to price increases in March 2025 [4]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that the current valuation of the company is low compared to its historical PE levels and within the Hong Kong photovoltaic industry, indicating potential for valuation improvement [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a low valuation for the company, with a 2025 PE ratio of 14.4 times, which is considered low within the photovoltaic industry chain [4][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 saw a significant decline, with revenue dropping by 9.3% to 21.9 billion RMB, primarily due to the photovoltaic glass industry being at a cyclical low [2][4]. - The net profit for 2024 plummeted by 73.8% to 1.0 billion RMB, leading to the decision not to distribute a final dividend [2][4]. - There is an expectation for marginal improvement in 2025, driven by an increase in the operating rate of components and rising demand for photovoltaic glass, with price increases noted in March 2025 [4][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 9.3% to 21.9 billion RMB, largely due to a decline in solar glass sales and a drop in average selling prices, which fell by 18.7% year-on-year [2][4]. - The gross margin decreased by 11 percentage points to 15.8%, and the net margin fell by 11.3 percentage points to 4.6% [2][4]. - The company reported a net profit of 1.0 billion RMB for 2024, a significant decline of 73.8% [2][4]. Production Capacity and Market Outlook - The company plans to resume production capacity of 4,000 tons per day in 2025, with new production lines in Indonesia expected to be operational by Q1 2026 [3]. - As of the end of 2024, the company's photovoltaic glass capacity was 23,200 tons per day, down from 25,800 tons at the end of 2023 [3]. - The demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to improve in 2025, with a notable increase in component orders and effective capacity control within the industry [4][3]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - In March 2025, the average price of mainstream 2.0mm photovoltaic glass increased by 15%, while 3.2mm products saw a price rise of 12.5% [4]. - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics is anticipated to help the photovoltaic glass industry recover from its cyclical low in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2024, with a revenue of 21.9 billion RMB, down 9.5% year-on-year, and a net loss of 780 million RMB [1]. - The photovoltaic glass business saw a revenue of 18.8 billion RMB, a decrease of 13.3% year-on-year, despite a 9.6% increase in sales volume [2]. - The overall gross margin and net profit margin for the company in fiscal year 2024 were 15.8% and 4.6%, respectively, both down by 11 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is experiencing a cyclical adjustment in the solar industry due to an imbalance in supply and demand, leading to a significant drop in component prices [3]. - The company plans to slow down its capital expenditures, with a total of 4.7 billion RMB in capital spending for 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For fiscal year 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 21.9 billion RMB, with a net loss of 780 million RMB, marking a year-on-year decline of 73.4% in net profit [1]. - The photovoltaic glass segment's revenue was 18.8 billion RMB, down 13.3% year-on-year, while the solar power generation segment's revenue increased by 10% to 3.02 billion RMB [2]. Production Capacity and Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company's daily melting capacity for solar glass reached 32,200 tons, with 23,200 tons currently in production [4]. - The company has paused the development of new production bases in Yunnan and Jiangxi while exploring other overseas expansion opportunities [4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the company’s growth prospects remain positive due to its leading position in the industry, despite the current challenges in the photovoltaic glass market [5]. - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 22.7 billion RMB and 25.1 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on market conditions [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company [4][7][18] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant improvement in FY25 performance, with a projected rebound in gross margins and net profits after a challenging FY24 [3][4] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 3.22 to HKD 3.43, reflecting a 15x FY25 target P/E ratio [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - FY24 net profit for shareholders decreased by 73.8% to RMB 1.008 billion, aligning with the company's profit warning [1] - Total revenue for FY24 fell by 9.3% to RMB 21.921 billion, primarily due to a decline in photovoltaic glass prices [1] - Gross profit and gross margin for FY24 dropped by 46.3% and 10.9 percentage points to RMB 3.473 billion and 15.8%, respectively [1] - Despite the challenges, electricity sales volume increased by 17.0%, leading to a 12.1% rise in photovoltaic power generation revenue [1] Capacity Guidance - The company has revised its capacity guidance for FY25, with effective annual melting capacity expected to rise by only 0.1% to 9.08 million tons [2] - There are no new production lines planned for FY25, but the company intends to resume four production lines with a daily melting capacity of 1,000 tons [2] Margin Expectations - Following a recent stabilization in photovoltaic glass prices, the company has raised its March pricing by approximately 10% [3] - Assuming no further impairment losses, FY25 gross margin for photovoltaic glass is expected to rebound by 4.5 percentage points to 12.1% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company [4][7][18] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant improvement in FY25 performance, with a projected rebound in gross margins and net profit [3][4] - FY24 saw a substantial decline in net profit by 73.8% to 1.01 billion RMB, attributed to falling photovoltaic glass prices and increased impairment losses [1][6] - The company plans to increase its effective annual melting capacity slightly in FY25, with no new production lines planned but a revival of existing lines [2] Financial Performance Summary - FY24 total revenue decreased by 9.3% to 21.92 billion RMB, with photovoltaic glass revenue down 11.9% to 18.82 billion RMB [1][11] - Gross profit and gross margin for FY24 fell by 46.3% and 10.9 percentage points to 3.47 billion RMB and 15.8%, respectively [1][11] - The company anticipates a gross margin rebound in FY25, with an expected increase of 4.5 percentage points to 12.1% for photovoltaic glass [3][11] - FY25 net profit is projected to rebound by 89.7% to 1.91 billion RMB, followed by a 15.9% increase in FY26 [3][11] Target Price and Valuation - The target price has been raised from 3.22 HKD to 3.43 HKD, corresponding to a 15x FY25 target P/E ratio [4][7] - The current stock price is 3.47 HKD, indicating a 1.2% downside potential from the target price [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 4.28, indicating a potential upside of 30.1% from the current price of HKD 3.29 [1][4][19]. Core Insights - The company has faced performance challenges due to impairment losses, with a projected revenue of RMB 21.9 billion and a net profit of RMB 1.01 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 74% respectively [2][7]. - The photovoltaic glass prices have rebounded strongly due to supply contraction and recovering demand, with a significant price increase of 17% observed in March [2][7]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the company, driven by supply-side reforms and expected policy measures from the government to address structural issues in the industry [7][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 25.8 billion in 2023, RMB 23.4 billion in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 30.1 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.5% [3][16]. - Net profit is expected to recover from RMB 1.09 billion in 2024 to RMB 4.2 billion by 2027, with significant growth anticipated in the following years [3][16]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from RMB 0.12 in 2024 to RMB 0.46 in 2027, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [3][16]. Business Segment Performance - The photovoltaic glass segment is expected to see a volume increase from 653,000 tons in 2023 to 958,000 tons by 2027, despite a decline in average selling price [9][16]. - The photovoltaic power generation segment is projected to maintain stable revenue, with a slight decrease in gross margin from 68.5% in 2023 to 65.3% by 2027 [9][16]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant reduction in global nominal daily melting capacity from 123,000 tons to 97,000 tons, which has contributed to a favorable supply-demand balance in the photovoltaic glass market [7][9]. - New policies in distributed photovoltaic and renewable energy pricing are expected to enhance project profitability, driving demand in the short term [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.09 [8][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 21.92 billion and a net profit of RMB 1.01 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.3% and 73.8% respectively. The second half of 2024 saw a loss of RMB 800 million due to falling prices and reduced sales of photovoltaic glass, alongside impairment provisions for cold repair lines and inventory [1][2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in photovoltaic glass prices in March 2025 as downstream demand improves, benefiting the company's profitability due to its scale and cost advantages as an industry leader [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's photovoltaic glass and solar power generation businesses generated revenues of RMB 18.82 billion and RMB 3.02 billion, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 11.9% and an increase of 12.1%. The gross margin for photovoltaic glass was 7.6%, down 14.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company recorded impairment losses of RMB 390 million for property, plant, and equipment, and RMB 160 million for inventory in 2024, primarily due to cold repairs and inventory write-downs [3]. Market Outlook - The global photovoltaic market is expected to grow, with an estimated 530 GW of new installations in 2024, a 36% increase year-on-year. The company holds the largest production capacity of photovoltaic glass globally at 23,000 tons per day [4]. - The report predicts that as the supply-demand balance improves, photovoltaic glass prices will stabilize and potentially rise, positively impacting the company's profitability [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.80 billion, RMB 2.57 billion, and RMB 3.20 billion, respectively, reflecting significant downward adjustments from previous estimates due to declining glass prices and sales [5][15]. - The report applies a comparable company valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 19x for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 4.09 [5][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [2][9]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to equity holders of 1.008 billion yuan for 2024, with a significant loss of 800 million yuan in the second half of the year, aligning with performance forecasts [1]. - The decline in prices has pressured profitability, leading to impairment provisions for glass production lines and inventory [1]. - The company has increased its production capacity with four new photovoltaic glass production lines, achieving a 9.6% increase in sales volume [2]. - The photovoltaic glass market has faced continuous price declines, with average prices dropping from 17.0 yuan/sqm in the first half to 12.9 yuan/sqm in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The company has taken measures to mitigate losses by impairing 393 million yuan for production lines and 159 million yuan for inventory [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.008 billion yuan, with a second-half loss of 800 million yuan, consistent with forecasts [1]. - The company operated four new photovoltaic glass production lines, increasing sales volume by 9.6% [1]. Operational Analysis - The decline in glass prices has pressured profitability, leading to significant impairment provisions [1]. - The average price of photovoltaic glass fell to 12.9 yuan/sqm in the second half of 2024, down from 17.0 yuan/sqm in the first half [1]. - The company has implemented cold repairs on existing furnaces to manage production capacity amid losses [1]. Capacity and Market Outlook - The company has a total production capacity of 32,200 tons, with 23,200 tons currently in operation [2]. - Plans to restore production lines in 2025 are expected to increase effective daily production capacity by 0.1% [2]. - The photovoltaic glass industry has been in a prolonged loss phase, limiting the recovery capacity of smaller competitors, which may benefit the company [2]. - The company is enhancing its overseas supply capabilities to mitigate policy risks, with two production lines in Indonesia expected to commence in Q1 2026 [2]. Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 2.385 billion yuan and 3.313 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 3.876 billion yuan [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 12/8/7 for 2025-2027 and a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of only 0.95 [2].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 21,921.4 million, a decrease of 9.3% compared to RMB 24,163.7 million in 2023[3]. - Profit attributable to equity holders of the company was RMB 1,008.2 million, down 73.8% from RMB 3,842.8 million in the previous year[3]. - Basic earnings per share decreased by 73.9% to RMB 11.27 from RMB 43.17 in 2023[3]. - Gross profit, excluding impairment losses on property, plant, and equipment, was RMB 3,865.998 million, down from RMB 6,466.165 million[6]. - Operating profit for the year was RMB 2,326.715 million, a decline from RMB 5,396.953 million in 2023[6]. - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 1,651.719 million, compared to RMB 4,329.419 million in the previous year[7]. - Total expenses for the year amounted to RMB 19,594,615,000 in 2024, up from RMB 18,885,839,000 in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 3.8%[36]. - EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 4,392.8 million, a decrease of 38.2% from RMB 7,107.5 million in 2023, with an EBITDA margin of 20.0%[116]. - The company's net profit attributable to equity holders dropped to RMB 1,008.2 million in 2024, down 73.8% from RMB 3,842.8 million in 2023[116]. Revenue Breakdown - Solar glass sales accounted for RMB 18,820,033 thousand, down from RMB 21,358,573 thousand in the previous year, representing a decline of 11.4%[19]. - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, total revenue from solar glass sales was RMB 18,820,033 thousand, and from solar power generation business was RMB 3,017,282 thousand, totaling RMB 21,921,447 thousand from external customers[23]. - The geographical breakdown of revenue shows that mainland China contributed RMB 17,510,480 thousand, while other regions contributed RMB 3,287,712 thousand[23]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from the previous fiscal year, with solar glass sales decreasing from RMB 21,358,573 thousand to RMB 18,820,033 thousand, while solar power generation business increased from RMB 2,691,435 thousand to RMB 3,017,282 thousand[25]. Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets increased to RMB 39,369.543 million from RMB 37,004.425 million in 2023[9]. - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 56,932,484 thousand, with total liabilities of RMB 22,524,612 thousand[30]. - The total equity as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 34,407,872 thousand, slightly down from RMB 34,495,099 thousand in 2023[10]. - Total liabilities increased to RMB 22,524,612 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 20,576,746 thousand in 2023, marking an increase of 9.5%[10]. - Non-current liabilities rose significantly to RMB 7,180,740 thousand, up from RMB 4,878,334 thousand in 2023, indicating a growth of 47.2%[10]. - Current liabilities totaled RMB 15,343,872 thousand, a decrease of 2.3% from RMB 15,698,412 thousand in 2023[10]. - Total borrowings rose to RMB 11,640,054 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 9,573,355 thousand in 2023, marking an increase of 21.67%[59]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents decreased significantly to RMB 821.606 million from RMB 2,572.275 million in 2023[9]. - Cash generated from operating activities decreased significantly to RMB 1,235.1 million in 2024 from RMB 5,305.0 million in 2023, attributed to lower profitability in the solar glass business[118]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents in RMB decreased to RMB 9,809,059 thousand in 2024 from RMB 3,237,694 thousand in 2023, indicating a significant change in liquidity[60]. Dividends - The company did not propose a final dividend for the year, compared to a dividend of HKD 0.15 per share in 2023[3]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.10 per share for 2024, compared to HKD 0.075 per share in 2023, representing a 33.3% increase[43]. - The company has not recommended a final dividend for the year ending December 31, 2024, compared to a final dividend of HKD 0.15 per share in 2023[43]. Market Conditions and Challenges - The average selling price of solar glass products significantly declined due to supply-demand imbalance and intense competition, despite an increase in sales volume[66]. - The global photovoltaic installation growth rate slowed down in 2024 compared to 2023, with major markets in the EU experiencing a decline in installed capacity[67]. - The company faces challenges from trade barriers, high interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties affecting the solar industry in China[69]. - The solar industry is undergoing a significant cyclical adjustment due to supply-demand imbalance, leading to a wave of industry consolidation and mergers[73]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to expand its solar power generation capacity and invest in new technologies to enhance operational efficiency[23]. - The company aims to explore potential mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position and expand its product offerings[23]. - The company is actively seeking potential solar power projects and conducting feasibility studies despite slowing down new project construction due to increased investment return uncertainty[79]. - The company plans to issue up to RMB 3 billion in Panda bonds to optimize its capital structure and enhance financial liquidity[82]. Production and Capacity Adjustments - The company adjusted its solar glass production capacity from 27,000 tons per day to 23,200 tons per day by December 31, 2024, in response to market changes[78]. - The company has reduced the number of new production lines from six to four, with a daily melting capacity decrease from 6,400 tons to 4,400 tons[78]. - The company is strategically reducing production capacity to better manage inventory and enhance overall competitiveness in response to market challenges[102]. Employee and Governance - A total of 18,700,000 stock options were granted to selected employees and one executive director, effective from March 28, 2024, to March 31, 2028[135]. - The board of directors confirmed compliance with the corporate governance code throughout the year ending December 31, 2024[139]. - The audit committee reviewed the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024[140].