Runben Biotechnology (SH:603193) Southwest Securities·2024-08-01 06:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Runben Co., Ltd. (603193) with a target price of 24.00 CNY over the next six months, based on its strong growth potential and market positioning [1][6]. Core Insights - Runben is entering a phase of rapid revenue and profit growth, driven by the specialization and segmentation of the baby care market, which has a low brand concentration. The online sales channel is growing significantly faster than offline, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.3% from 2020 to 2023 for direct online sales [1][25]. - The company has a competitive edge through its integrated research, production, and sales model, allowing for quick product iterations and strong brand recognition among its target audience [1][4]. - The financial forecast indicates a compound annual growth rate of 30% for net profit from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to be 0.73 CNY, 0.96 CNY, and 1.23 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Runben Co., Ltd. specializes in mosquito repellent and baby care products, with a well-established brand and a diverse product matrix [17][18]. Industry Analysis - The mosquito repellent market is steadily growing, with a market size of approximately 8 billion CNY in 2023 and a CAGR of 7.6% from 2018 to 2023. The baby care market is also expanding rapidly, with a CAGR of 11% for single-child care spending from 2017 to 2023 [1][28]. Company Analysis - Runben's integrated model enhances its product competitiveness, with a focus on high cost-performance and innovation. The company has a strong online presence, with 60.1% of its revenue coming from direct online sales [1][23][25]. Growth Potential - There is significant room for improvement in average transaction value and repurchase rates, particularly in underdeveloped markets. The company aims to enhance brand recognition and expand its offline presence [1][4][25]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown robust financial growth, with revenue increasing from 280 million CNY in 2019 to over 1 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 38.7%. The net profit also grew significantly during this period [19][21].