西藏矿业：藏地明珠，扎布耶盐湖扩产落地

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The company holds exclusive mining rights to the Zabuye Salt Lake, which is the largest lithium-rich salt lake in Asia and has the second-highest lithium concentration globally. The company plans to expand production to achieve a scale of 30,000 to 50,000 tons of lithium salt by 2027 [4][5] - The trial production of the 10,000-ton battery-grade lithium carbonate project is set to begin in June 2024, with a designed annual output of 9,600 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate and 2,400 tons of industrial-grade lithium carbonate [4] - The company's chromite business is stable, with high-quality ore from the Robsha mine, and it produced 113,000 tons of chromite in 2023, ranking among the top in the industry [4] - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 256% to 414%, driven by rising prices in the chromite market and optimized sales strategies for lithium products [4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to decline from 806 million yuan in 2023 to 784 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 1.297 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.115 billion yuan in 2026 [6][10] - The net profit is expected to rise from 164 million yuan in 2023 to 234 million yuan in 2024, reaching 414 million yuan in 2025 and 786 million yuan in 2026 [6][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.31 yuan in 2023, increasing to 0.45 yuan in 2024, 0.79 yuan in 2025, and 1.51 yuan in 2026 [6][10] Business Segmentation - Lithium business revenue is expected to reach 55.099 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 65.4%, and is projected to grow significantly in subsequent years [9] - The chromite business is anticipated to generate revenue of 25.131 million yuan in 2024, maintaining a gross margin of 52% [9] Valuation - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected to be between 25 and 27 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 19.75 to 21.33 yuan per share [5]