Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company released a strong 24H1 earnings preview, with revenue expected to grow 114 3%-126 9% YoY to 3 4-3 6 billion yuan, and net profit expected to grow 286%-306% YoY to 390-410 million yuan [4] - The high revenue growth is driven by strong performance of the Han Shu brand on Douyin, with GMV increasing 136% YoY during the 618 shopping festival, and the second-tier brands also showing high growth [4] - The company is focusing on multiple channels, product series, and sub-brands, with a strategic shift back to offline channels and a diversified product matrix, including the popular Red Waist and White Waist series [5] - The company has a clear multi-brand strategy, aiming to build two super skincare brands, two strong maternal and infant brands, and two super personal care brands, expanding its influence across multiple categories and price segments [5] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 24H1 is expected to be 3 4-3 6 billion yuan, with net profit of 390-410 million yuan, representing a net profit margin of 10 8%-12 1% [4] - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted to be 7 184 billion yuan, with net profit of 900 million yuan, and EPS of 2 26 yuan [5] - Revenue for 2025E is forecasted to be 9 109 billion yuan, with net profit of 1 166 billion yuan, and EPS of 2 93 yuan [5] - Revenue for 2026E is forecasted to be 10 832 billion yuan, with net profit of 1 414 billion yuan, and EPS of 3 55 yuan [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 72 05% in 2023A to 74 25% in 2026E, with net profit margin increasing from 11 00% to 13 05% over the same period [9] Market Performance - The stock has shown significant volatility, with a 51% decline in July 2023 compared to the Hang Seng Index, and a 9 21% drop in the past month [2] - The stock's relative performance has been weaker than the market, with a 5 29% underperformance in the past month and a 9 27% underperformance over the past three months [2] Strategic Focus - The company is leveraging its strong presence on Douyin, with the Han Shu brand achieving a GMV of 3 593 billion yuan in 24H1, a 262 41% YoY increase, and a dominant position in the beauty and skincare categories [4] - The company is expanding its product portfolio with the Red Waist and White Waist series, which have become core products, and is targeting the mid-to-low-end market with a focus on cost-effectiveness [5] - The company is also focusing on offline channels, with plans to re-enter the CS channel and leverage its existing offline resources, which accounted for 45 7% of revenue in 2019 [5] Valuation - The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 15 2X for 2024E, 11 8X for 2025E, and 9 7X for 2026E, with a dividend yield of 4 4% for 2024E, 5 8% for 2025E, and 7 3% for 2026E [5][9]
上美股份：24H1预告高增长，关注多渠道、产品、品牌发展