BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) Haitong Securities·2024-08-01 11:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.628 billion yuan for H1 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 402 million yuan, down 8.36% year-on-year [5] - The revenue from pre-mixed cocktails decreased due to high base effects, consumer environment, and weather conditions, while the revenue from food flavoring increased by 7.5% [5] - The company is expected to improve its earnings with projected EPS of 0.79, 0.92, and 1.07 yuan for 2024-2026, respectively, with a reasonable valuation range of 19.06-22.24 yuan based on a PE of 24-28 times for 2024 [6][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 71.79%, an increase of 5.53 percentage points year-on-year, while sales expenses decreased compared to the previous year [5] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 3.264 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.692 billion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.9% in 2023 [7][10] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from pre-mixed cocktails is expected to be 2.934 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 1.8% year-on-year, while food flavoring is projected to reach 358.8 million yuan, growing by 13.3% [8] - The company’s revenue from other businesses, including whiskey, is expected to grow significantly, reaching 253.64 million yuan in 2024, a 300% increase [8] Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.02 in 2023 to 15.15 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation over time [10] - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 23.5% for the next few years, reflecting consistent profitability [10]