川宁生物：首次覆盖报告：抗生素龙头格局再优化，合成生物学拓宽成长边界

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.93 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the antibiotic intermediate industry, with integrated capabilities in synthetic biology that have been validated. The company has a strong market position in key segments such as Sulfur Red, 6-APA, and 7-ACA, and is expected to maintain a stable performance in its intermediate business [2][8]. - The industry supply-demand dynamics are improving, with product prices expected to remain high. The demand for antibiotic terminal formulations is expanding, and the supply side is constrained due to environmental regulations and production limitations [2][19]. - The company has significant advantages in large capacity, low cost, and stable supply, solidifying its leading position in the industry. Its market shares in Sulfur Red, 6-APA, and 7-ACA are 44%, 21%, and 37% respectively [2][19]. - The synthetic biology sector is emerging, with the company developing various products that are now entering production stages, indicating a promising future for its bio-economy transformation [2][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in December 2010, focuses on biotechnological fermentation and synthetic biology product development. It is a key player in the antibiotic intermediate sector under the umbrella of Kelun Pharmaceutical [8][19]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The antibiotic market in China is robust, with a significant portion of outpatient and inpatient cases utilizing antibiotics. The market size reached 194.5 billion CNY in 2022, with a stable growth rate of around 4% expected [19][23]. - The company is positioned well within a dual oligopoly structure in the Sulfur Red market, with major competitors being limited, which helps maintain price stability [24][28]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 58.3 billion CNY, 68.2 billion CNY, and 76.2 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 17.1%, and 11.7% respectively. Net profits are projected to be 13.8 billion CNY, 17.5 billion CNY, and 20.3 billion CNY, with growth rates of 47.0%, 26.9%, and 15.4% [2][3][12].