HPI(600011) 德邦证券·2024-08-02 00:30Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1][4] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance fell short of expectations, with both coal power and wind power segments experiencing significant declines in profit [3] - Coal power profit dropped due to reduced power generation and increased coal consumption, with profit per kWh decreasing by 0.016 yuan/kWh compared to Q1 2024 [3] - Wind power profit declined by 23% YoY in Q2 2024, likely due to poor wind conditions, with profit per kWh decreasing by 0.058 yuan/kWh compared to Q1 2024 [3] - The company's revenue for H1 2024 was 118.8 billion yuan, down 5.7% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.45 billion yuan, up 18.2% YoY [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow modestly from 257.08 billion yuan in 2024E to 268.66 billion yuan in 2026E, with growth rates of 1.1%, 2.5%, and 1.9% respectively [4][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 11.83 billion yuan in 2024E to 13.51 billion yuan in 2026E, with growth rates of 40.1%, 7.9%, and 5.8% respectively [4][5] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 16.2% in 2024E to 17.6% in 2026E, reflecting better profitability [5][6] - ROE is expected to remain stable around 8.3% from 2024E to 2026E [5][6] Segment Performance - Coal power segment profit in Q2 2024 was 1.16 billion yuan, down 59.1% QoQ, with profit per kWh at 0.015 yuan/kWh [3] - Wind power segment profit in Q2 2024 was 1.62 billion yuan, down 33.1% QoQ, with profit per kWh at 0.183 yuan/kWh [3] - The company added 185.4MW of wind power capacity and 1,252.9MW of solar capacity in Q2 2024, while decommissioning 47.5MW of wind capacity [3] Valuation Metrics - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 10.27x in 2024E to 8.99x in 2026E, indicating improving valuation [6] - P/B ratio is forecasted to decrease from 0.86x in 2024E to 0.73x in 2026E [6] - EV/EBITDA is projected to improve from 6.06x in 2024E to 5.79x in 2026E [6]