百润股份24Q2点评：高基数有望平稳度过

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company is expected to navigate through a high base period smoothly, with a focus on maintaining stable performance despite challenges [1] - The revenue performance aligns with forward expectations, with Q2 revenue at 826 million (down 7.3%) and H1 revenue at 1.628 billion (down 1.4%) [1] - The company anticipates a significant increase in the proportion of its "Refreshing" product line, aiming for over 20% in 2024, which is expected to alleviate pressure from its "Strong Refreshing" products [1] Revenue Analysis - Q2 revenue from pre-mixed and non-pre-mixed beverages decreased by 7.6% and 5.1% year-on-year, respectively [1] - H1 revenue from pre-mixed beverages, which account for nearly 90% of total revenue, saw a slight decline of 1.4%, with volume down 8.7% but price up 8.0% [1] - H1 revenue by channel showed offline sales at 1.43 billion (up 7.0%), online at 160 million (down 42.7%), and ready-to-drink at 20 million [1] Profit Analysis - H1 gross margin improved to 70.1%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced commercial discounts and a higher offline sales ratio [1] - The net profit margin for H1 decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 24.7%, attributed to increased advertising expenses [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.264 billion, 3.441 billion, 4.133 billion, and 4.825 billion for 2024E to 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, 20.1%, and 16.7% respectively [3][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 809 million, 858 million, 1.049 billion, and 1.234 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 6.0%, 22.2%, and 17.6% respectively [3][4] Financial Ratios - The projected gross margin for 2024E is 71.0%, increasing to 72.0% by 2026E [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 19.7% in 2024E, rising to 23.9% by 2026E [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 31.55 in 2024E to 13.79 by 2026E [5]