百润股份：强爽人群稳定，清爽加大导入，下半年有望改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported its 2024 semi-annual results, with revenues of 1.63 billion yuan for H1 and 830 million yuan for Q2, reflecting year-on-year changes of -1.4% and -7.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 402 million yuan for H1 and 233 million yuan for Q2, with year-on-year changes of -8.4% and -7.3% respectively [4][5] - The company continues to develop its "358" product matrix, with expectations for strong growth in its flagship products under marketing support. The whisky project is anticipated to contribute additional revenue in the second half of the year [5] Revenue Analysis - For H1 2024, the pre-mixed cocktails (including sparkling water) and food flavoring segments generated revenues of 1.431 billion yuan and 176 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -1.42% and +7.51% respectively. In Q2 2024, the pre-mixed cocktails segment achieved revenues of 719 million yuan, down by 7.56% year-on-year [4] - The company has launched new products and marketing campaigns to expand its consumer base and enhance brand positioning, including the introduction of a new large packaging for its refreshing drinks and a new advertising campaign [4] Profitability Metrics - The company achieved gross margins of 70.08% for H1 and 71.79% for Q2, with year-on-year increases of 4.19 and 5.53 percentage points respectively. The net profit margins were 24.72% for H1 and 28.20% for Q2, showing slight declines of 1.88 and 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company has maintained a reasonable control over its sales expenses, with a forecast for stable spending throughout the year [4] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.61 billion yuan, 4.31 billion yuan, and 5.05 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 19.5%, and 17.2% [5] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 889 million yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 1.23 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 9.5%, 15.7%, and 19.6% respectively [5]