BUD APAC(HK:01876) EBSCN·2024-08-03 08:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of USD 3.399 billion for the first half of 2024, with an organic year-on-year decline of 4.3%. EBITDA was USD 1.1 billion, reflecting a 1.0% organic decline [6] - Strong growth in the Eastern region partially offsets pressures in the Chinese market, with Q2 revenue in the Eastern region increasing by 21.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The company continues to push its premiumization strategy, leading to an increase in average selling price despite a decline in sales volume [6][8] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a sales volume of 465.73 thousand tons, down 6.2% year-on-year, while the average price per ton increased by 2.0% [6] - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 51.5%, an improvement of 1.27 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost management and declining commodity prices [6] - The company expects further improvement in profitability in the second half of 2024 due to easing raw material cost pressures [8] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia region, Q2 revenue and EBITDA declined by 13.2% and 16.3% year-on-year, respectively, with sales volume down 9.0% [6] - In the Eastern Asia region, Q2 revenue and EBITDA increased by 21.2% and 69.6% year-on-year, respectively, with sales volume up 6.0% [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report revises down the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to USD 936 million, USD 1.039 billion, and USD 1.144 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10%, 12%, and 13% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17x for 2024, 15x for 2025, and 14x for 2026 [8]