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立讯精密:苹果2024FQ3财报点评:iPhone表现好于预期,关注AIOS迭代对手机放量的催化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luxshare Precision (立讯精密) with a target price of 56.35 CNY over a 6-month period [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Luxshare Precision is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for iPhones driven by Apple Intelligence, with projected net profits of 13.716 billion CNY for 2024 and 17.547 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 25% and 28% respectively [8][25]. - The anticipated shipment volume for the iPhone 16 series is estimated to reach 58-60 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 23% [25]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in the automotive sector, with expected revenue growth of nearly 50% due to collaborations with key clients [25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24, the total revenue is projected to be 279.1 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 20.35% [10]. - The net profit for FY24 is forecasted at 13.716 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 25.23% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.91 CNY for FY24 [10]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the integration of AI in Apple's products will catalyze a new replacement cycle for iPhones, potentially increasing the installed base and market share [20][21]. - The report projects that the iPhone sales volume for 2025 could reach 255 million units, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [21]. Business Segments - In the mobile assembly business, Luxshare is expected to benefit from the demand for the iPhone 16 series, with significant contributions to net profit growth from this segment [25]. - The module business is projected to see revenue growth driven by increased market share with major clients, expected to contribute an additional 27.8 billion CNY in revenue for FY24 [25]. - The report also notes that the communication and data center sectors are expected to grow by 30-40% this year, driven by strong demand in server business [25].