牧原股份：公司事件点评报告：业绩实现扭亏为盈，成本下降有望进一步释放盈利空间

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) [1] Core Insights - The company has turned profitable in Q2 2024, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by rising pig prices and decreasing feed costs [2][3] - The complete cost of production is gradually decreasing, which is expected to further enhance profitability [3] - The company has sufficient breeding sow inventory, with an expected annual output of 70 million pigs [4][8] - Cash flow has significantly improved, and the debt ratio is expected to decline gradually [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Muyuan Foods achieved revenue of 56.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 829 million yuan, up 129.84% [2] - Q2 2024 saw revenue of 30.594 billion yuan, a 10.56% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.208 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 302.91% [2] Cost Structure - The total operating cost for H1 2024 was 55.710 billion yuan, a 2.12% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 7.74%, up 6.32 percentage points [3] - The complete production cost has decreased from 15 yuan/kg in 2023 to nearly 14 yuan/kg by June 2024, with further reductions expected [3] Production Capacity - The company reported a breeding sow inventory of 3.309 million heads as of June 2024, significantly ahead of competitors, with expectations for further increases in output [8] - The company aims for an annual output of 70 million pigs in 2024 [8] Cash Flow and Debt Management - Operating net cash flow for H1 2024 was 15.774 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1582.18%, primarily due to higher sales prices and lower costs [9] - The capital debt ratio was 61.81% as of Q2 2024, down 1.78 percentage points from Q1 2024 [9] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 133.478 billion, 152.008 billion, and 155.194 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates of 2.80, 4.70, and 3.62 yuan [10]