Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Overweight" rating for the company, assigning a target price of HKD 103.37 based on a 16.2x PE multiple for FY2024 [2][10] Core Investment Thesis - The company is positioned as a high-end brand with significant brand premium and customer loyalty, driven by strong single-store sales growth and store expansion potential [2] - The company's growth strategy combines product innovation, channel expansion, and brand building, creating a competitive moat [2] - The domestic market offers substantial growth potential through single-store efficiency improvement and store network expansion, while international markets present long-term opportunities [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 7.11 billion in FY2024 to RMB 13.25 billion in FY2026, with a CAGR of 30.83% [2][6] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.00 billion in FY2024 to RMB 1.91 billion in FY2026, with a CAGR of 31.54% [2][6] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 42.5% from FY2024 to FY2026, supported by product mix optimization [6] Product and Brand Strategy - The company focuses on ancient gold craftsmanship and innovative product lines, such as gold-inlaid diamonds, which have driven rapid revenue growth [2][12] - The brand strategy aligns with luxury positioning, emphasizing exclusivity and premium pricing, which enhances brand equity [2][12] - The company's product portfolio includes ancient gold and gold-inlaid jewelry, with gold-inlaid products contributing 56% of total revenue in 2023 [12][38] Channel Expansion - The company operates a fully self-owned store model, with 33 stores in 14 cities as of the IPO filing, primarily located in tier-1 and new tier-1 cities [14][25] - Online sales accounted for 11.4% of total revenue in 2023, with a CAGR of 33% projected from FY2024 to FY2026 [6][14] - The company plans to expand its domestic store network to 60-100 stores, targeting high-end commercial centers, and explore international markets in Asia and beyond [2][25] Industry Analysis - The ancient gold jewelry market in China is a high-growth segment, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching RMB 421.4 billion by 2028 [54] - The global gold jewelry market, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, offers significant opportunities for Chinese brands, with markets exceeding USD 10 billion in size [59][60] - The shift from "channel-first" to "brand-first" strategies is reshaping the competitive landscape in the gold jewelry industry, with a focus on premium positioning and product innovation [64] Growth Drivers - Domestic growth is driven by single-store efficiency improvement, store network expansion, and increased penetration among high-net-worth individuals [2][5] - International expansion is a long-term growth driver, with the company targeting markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, leveraging its brand and product differentiation [2][25]
老铺黄金首次覆盖报告：新工艺引领国潮，强品牌打开空间