Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Hold" with a target price of HK$2.70, reflecting a 56% reduction from the previous target price of HK$6.10 [1][3]. Core Views - The investment logic regarding the replicability of the "Tai Er" business model faces challenges, leading to uncertainties in future development [1][3]. - The estimated market capitalization of Jiumaojiu Group is likely between HK$25 billion and HK$55 billion, indicating that the current risk-reward ratio is not clearly defined [1][3]. - The report anticipates a significant decline in the company's performance, with a projected 54.6% drop in net profit for 2024 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current rating is "Hold" with a target price of HK$2.70, down from HK$6.10 [1][3]. Financial Performance - The report projects a 2024 revenue of RMB 6.49 billion, a decrease of 6.7% from previous estimates [1][10]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 240 million, reflecting a 54.6% reduction [1][10]. - The 2025 EPS is revised down to RMB 0.25, a 40.4% decrease from earlier forecasts [1][10]. Market Analysis - The report highlights that the average market capitalization of Jiumaojiu is estimated to be around HK$40 billion, with a current market value of HK$38 billion [1][9]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that under different scenarios, the market value could range from HK$25 billion to HK$55 billion [1][9]. Business Model Challenges - The report notes that the business model of "Tai Er" is facing replicability challenges, which may hinder future growth [1][3]. - The company has adjusted its store opening guidance for 2024 from 35-40 stores to 25 stores, indicating a more cautious approach [1][3].
九毛九：“太二商业模式可复制性”的投资逻辑经受挑战