BUD APAC(HK:01876)2024-08-04 23:31Investment Rating - Maintain NEUTRAL rating with a target price of HK$10.10 [3] Core Views - H1 revenue declined by 4.3% YoY, primarily due to weak Q2 sales in China [4] - Volume and revenue per hl in South Korea and India showed growth, contributing to margin expansion [4] - Cost reductions and premiumization strategies are expected to sustain margin improvements [4] Financial Performance - H1 sales volume decreased by 6.2% YoY to 46.6 million hl, with revenue down 7.3% YoY to $3.39bn [4] - Normalized EBITDA fell by 6.2% YoY to $1.10bn, with a margin improvement of 1.1pct to 32.4% [4] - Q2 sales volume dropped by 7.0% YoY to 25.5 million hl, with revenue down 10.6% YoY to $1.76bn [4] Regional Performance - APAC West (China): Q2 sales volume and revenue per hl declined by 10.3% and 5.4% YoY, respectively, due to industry weakness and adverse weather conditions [4] - APAC East (South Korea): Q2 revenue and profit grew by double digits, with market share recovering to 2018 levels [4] - India: Premium and above products achieved double-digit growth, capturing 2/3 of the premium market share [4] Cost and Margin Trends - Cost per hl decreased by 0.6% YoY, driven by lower commodity prices, contributing to a gross margin increase of 0.6pct to 51.5% [4] - SG&A expense ratio rose by 1.2pct YoY to 30.3%, due to declining revenue [4] Earnings Forecast - EPS forecasts for 2024-26 were revised downward to HK$0.53, HK$0.56, and HK$0.60, respectively [4] - The company is expected to benefit from continued premiumization in the Asia-Pacific region [4] Valuation - The target price of HK$10.10 is based on a 19x PE multiple for 2024, down from the previous 22x [4]