XIAOMI(01810) 招银国际·2024-08-05 01:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 24.29, reflecting a potential upside of 51.0% from the current price of HKD 16.08 [2][3][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report resilient core earnings and improved profitability in its electric vehicle (EV) segment, driven by strong smartphone sales and growth in AIoT and internet services [2][10]. - The global smartphone market share for the company has increased to 15%, with a year-on-year shipment growth of 27%, outperforming the industry average of 12% [2][3]. - The company anticipates a 30% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2 2024, with total revenue estimated at RMB 89.226 billion and adjusted net profit at RMB 4.459 billion [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are RMB 343.507 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 26.8%. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 21.785 billion, reflecting a 13% increase [3][10]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for smartphones is projected to remain between 9% and 13%, while the GPM for AIoT is expected to be around 19.6% [2][10]. - The company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is estimated at RMB 0.88, with a consensus EPS of RMB 0.74, indicating a 19% higher projection than consensus [10][12]. Market Performance and Valuation - The company’s stock has shown a 31.8% increase over the past six months, outperforming the market [5]. - The report highlights that the current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is attractive at 17.0x for FY24E and 14.8x for FY25E [2][10]. - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, assigning a P/E of 15x for its smartphone, AIoT, and internet businesses, and a P/S of 0.75x for its EV business [13][14].