GANYUAN FOODS CO.(SZ:002991) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-08-05 14:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company's Q2 growth was slightly below expectations, but its valuation is considered attractive. The revenue for H1 2024 reached 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 167 million yuan, up 39.3% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was 456 million yuan, growing 4.9% year-on-year, with net profit of 75 million yuan, a 16.8% increase year-on-year. The slower growth in Q2 is attributed to a high base from the previous year and a weak external consumption environment, along with changes in the company's traditional channel organization. The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 420 million yuan (-0.1), 520 million yuan (-0.3), and 640 million yuan (-0.3), representing year-on-year growth of 27.1%, 24.9%, and 22.2% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12.2, 9.8, and 8.0 for the respective years, indicating a high valuation attractiveness. It is anticipated that with the recovery of consumption scenarios and the peak season in Q4, the company is likely to return to rapid growth, hence the "Buy" rating is maintained [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.04 billion yuan, a 26.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 167 million yuan, up 39.3% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was 456 million yuan, a 4.9% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 75 million yuan, a 16.8% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company’s revenue by product for H1 2024 was as follows: comprehensive nuts (340 million yuan, +48.5%), green peas (240 million yuan, +16.9%), sunflower seeds (140 million yuan, +12.8%), broad beans (120 million yuan, +12.0%), and other products (200 million yuan, +24.2%). The growth in comprehensive nuts and other series was driven by new product launches [3]. - The company’s revenue by region for H1 2024 showed significant growth in East China (280 million yuan, +56.8%), Southwest (170 million yuan, +66.4%), and South China (70 million yuan, +45.1%). However, North China saw a decline of 27.6% [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 34.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix adjustments and a slight increase in palm oil prices. The selling expense ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year due to higher salaries and promotional expenses, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points, remaining relatively stable. The income tax rate decreased by 9.7 percentage points due to tax benefits from high-tech enterprise certification [4]. - The company’s projected financial metrics for 2024E include revenue of 2.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 28.6%, and a net profit of 418.4 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.1% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are projected to be 12.2, 9.8, and 8.0 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [5]. - The projected P/B ratios for the same years are 2.7, 2.2, and 1.8, reflecting a decreasing trend in valuation multiples [5].