牧原股份：盈利能力突出，现金流情况持续改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected performance and market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit of 829 million yuan in the first half of 2024, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 56.87 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.63% [2]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 30.59 billion yuan, with a notable increase in net profit to 3.21 billion yuan, driven by rising pig prices and reduced breeding costs [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 44.75 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 244.6 billion yuan [1]. - The company has a total share capital of 5.465 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.1% [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company sold 32.39 million pigs, a 7.01% increase year-on-year, with an expected annual output of 66-72 million pigs [3]. - The average selling price of pigs rose to 16.02 yuan per kilogram in the second quarter, a 13.86% increase year-on-year, with June's price reaching 17.73 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The cost of pig farming decreased to 14 yuan per kilogram by June 2024, down from 15.8 yuan at the beginning of the year, leading to an average profit of 190 yuan per pig in the second quarter [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first half of 2024 was 15.47 billion yuan, with over 10 billion yuan generated in the second quarter [3]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2024, the company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 61.81%, and it held cash reserves of 20.36 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 2.91 yuan, 3.22 yuan, and 2.89 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 130.77 billion yuan, 133.41 billion yuan, and 133.16 billion yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 17.96%, 2.02%, and -0.19% [4][5].