Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the furniture industry, with expected revenue growth driven by the expansion of its consumer base and product categories, alongside significant improvements in profitability through cost reduction and efficiency enhancement [3][4][5] Revenue Growth Potential - The company is benefiting from a continuous expansion of its consumer base, particularly targeting high-end and younger demographics. The core price range for its main brand mattresses is approximately 3,200 to 9,100 yuan, indicating a high-end positioning with substantial growth potential [4][21] - The mattress market in China was valued at 70.8 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% from 2015 to 2020, driven by increasing penetration rates and a growing focus on sleep-related products [4][21] - The company has diversified its product offerings, including mattresses, bed frames, sofas, and customized furniture, which is expected to enhance average transaction values through bundled sales [4][5] Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin has shown a significant recovery, reaching 52.2% in Q2 2023, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a reduction in direct supply business and a favorable shift in product mix [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from economies of scale, with fixed marketing costs being spread over a larger revenue base, similar to trends observed in the real estate sector [4][5] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 885 million yuan, 972 million yuan, and 1.097 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.4%, 9.7%, and 12.9% [5][6] - The current closing price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 and 12 times for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a target valuation range of 39.84 to 42.06 yuan based on comparable company analysis [5] Market Positioning - The company has established a comprehensive brand matrix that includes high-end and trendy products, catering to the evolving preferences of younger consumers. This includes the introduction of new brands and series aimed at capturing the growing market share among younger demographics [4][27][28] - The company’s e-commerce channel has seen rapid growth, achieving revenue of 1.03 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.5% from 2018 to 2023 [31][32]
公司深度报告：探究慕思股份的长期空间——收入端“纵横开拓” &利润端“降本增效”