药明康德：24H1 点评：单二季度环比改善，新分子业务增长强劲

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 67.72 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 17.241 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, excluding COVID-19 commercialization projects, the revenue decline was 0.7%. The adjusted Non-IFRS net profit was 4.37 billion CNY, down 14.2% year-on-year. In the second quarter, revenue reached 9.26 billion CNY, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.0%, with an adjusted Non-IFRS net profit of 2.46 billion CNY, up 28.5% year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue (CNY million): - 2022A: 39,355 - 2023A: 40,341 - 2024E: 40,074 - 2025E: 45,044 - 2026E: 52,630 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): - 2022A: 71.8% - 2023A: 2.5% - 2024E: -0.7% - 2025E: 12.4% - 2026E: 16.8% [2]. - Net Profit (CNY million): - 2022A: 8,814 - 2023A: 9,607 - 2024E: 9,370 - 2025E: 10,747 - 2026E: 12,778 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): - 2022A: 72.9% - 2023A: 9.0% - 2024E: -2.5% - 2025E: 14.7% - 2026E: 18.9% [2]. - Earnings Per Share (CNY): - 2022A: 3.03 - 2023A: 3.30 - 2024E: 3.22 - 2025E: 3.69 - 2026E: 4.39 [2]. Business Segment Performance - The chemical business saw a revenue decline of 9.3% in the first half of the year, but excluding COVID-19 business, it grew by 2.1%. The second quarter showed a significant improvement with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.6%. The new molecule (TIDES) business continued to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 57.2% due to strong demand in the GLP-1 related industry [3]. - The testing business experienced a revenue decline of 2.4%, with laboratory analysis significantly impacted by market demand, while clinical CRO business grew steadily by 5.8% [3]. - The biological business reported a revenue decline of 5.2%, but the new molecule business grew by 8.1%, increasing its revenue share from 25.4% in H1 2023 to 29.0% [3]. - The ATU business faced a revenue decline of 19.4%, primarily due to early-stage commercialization projects and delays or cancellations of some projects [3]. Order Backlog and Future Growth - Despite external challenges, the company maintained a strong order backlog, with total orders amounting to 43.1 billion CNY as of June 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.2% when excluding COVID-19 commercialization orders. The TIDES order backlog saw a robust year-on-year growth of 147% [3]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage new molecule development opportunities to drive long-term growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 9.37 billion CNY, 10.75 billion CNY, and 12.78 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates due to external environment disturbances and industry conditions [3]. - The company is currently valued at a reasonable level with a target price of 67.62 CNY based on a 21x P/E ratio for 2024, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3].