Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) GF SECURITIES·2024-08-06 09:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 57.31 CNY per share, indicating an expected strong performance relative to the market over the next 12 months [3][10]. Core Insights - In July, the company's pig sales volume increased by 21.5% month-on-month, with a total of 6.158 million pigs sold, resulting in a sales revenue of 13.405 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 43.5%. The increase in sales is attributed to prior growth in breeding stock and improved production efficiency [1][2]. - The company is focused on high-quality development, with a steady increase in the breeding stock. As of the end of June, the breeding sow inventory was 3.309 million, up by approximately 110,000 from April, supporting stable sales growth [1][2]. - Profitability is expected to exceed expectations due to rising pig prices and declining costs. The report notes that the recent increase in pig prices is likely to continue as the consumption peak approaches, benefiting from a widening gap between rising prices and falling costs [1][2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 3.19, 3.98, and 4.97 CNY, respectively, with a maintained reasonable value of 57.31 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 18 times for 2024 [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 124.826 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 137.033 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 23.6% [2]. - The EBITDA for 2022 was 29.848 billion CNY, with an expected increase to 36.705 billion CNY in 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.266 billion CNY in 2022, with a forecasted recovery to 17.416 billion CNY in 2024, indicating a significant growth rate of 508.5% [2].