NEW ORIENTAL-新东方-S：利润率短期扰动，教育业务延续增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental with a target price of $90.0, representing a potential upside of 50.4% from the current price of$ 59.9 [1]. Core Insights - The education business continues to grow despite short-term profit margin fluctuations, with a significant increase in the number of schools and learning centers, reaching 1,025, up by 114 from the previous quarter [1]. - The company expects net revenue for FY25Q1 to be between $1.25 billion and$ 1.28 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 31% to 34% [1]. - The deferred revenue balance stands at $1.78 billion, up 33.1% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with revenue growth expectations [1]. Financial Overview - For FY24Q4, total revenue was$ 113.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 32.1%, slightly above the company's guidance [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY24Q4 was $36.32 million, a year-over-year increase of 53.8% [1]. - The company reported a gross margin of 52.3%, down 2.2 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to increased investments in expansion and employee compensation [1][2]. Business Expansion - The overseas exam preparation and study abroad consulting businesses grew by 17.7% and 17.3% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - Non-academic tutoring business registrations increased by 39.1% year-over-year, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 50.3% in new business segments for Q4 [1]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for the next fiscal years indicate continued growth, with expected revenues of$ 5.02 billion in 2025 and $5.84 billion in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 16.3% and 16.5%, respectively [2][3]. - The company anticipates maintaining a strong cash position with total cash, short-term investments, and deposits amounting to$ 4.94 billion [1].