| 教育 目标价 | 收盘价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 36.90 港元 | 港元 | 46.00↓ | +24.7% | | | 新东方教育科技 (9901 HK) | | | | | 留学业务增长承压，K12 表现稳健 我们调整 2025 财年 3 季度收入/利润预期，预计非甄选业务收入同比增 22%， 调整后运营利润率同比降约 2.5 个百分点，主要因留学相关业务增速低于预期 及文旅投入。预计 2025 财年非甄选业务收入增速 25%/经营利润率 11.5%，非 学科保持快速增长拉动新业务增速，留学相关业务持续承压。未来公司将增 加青少年留学业务资源配置，随着降本增效举措效果显现及文旅业务减亏， 长期利润率仍有提升空间。对应 2026 年 2 月止 12 个月 20 倍市盈率，调整目 标价至 46 港元/64 美元（EDU US），公司现金流充沛，虽业务需调整，但品 牌力及规模仍领先行业，现价对应 2025/26 日历年市盈率 15/12 倍，估值吸 引，维持买入。 盈利预测变动 | | | ————FY ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 教育 目标价 | 收盘价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 36.90 港元 | 港元 | 46.00↓ | +24.7% | | | 新东方教育科技 (9901 HK) | | | | | 留学业务增长承压，K12 表现稳健 我们调整 2025 财年 3 季度收入/利润预期，预计非甄选业务收入同比增 22%， 调整后运营利润率同比降约 2.5 个百分点，主要因留学相关业务增速低于预期 及文旅投入。预计 2025 财年非甄选业务收入增速 25%/经营利润率 11.5%，非 学科保持快速增长拉动新业务增速，留学相关业务持续承压。未来公司将增 加青少年留学业务资源配置，随着降本增效举措效果显现及文旅业务减亏， 长期利润率仍有提升空间。对应 2026 年 2 月止 12 个月 20 倍市盈率，调整目 标价至 46 港元/64 美元（EDU US），公司现金流充沛，虽业务需调整，但品 牌力及规模仍领先行业，现价对应 2025/26 日历年市盈率 15/12 倍，估值吸 引，维持买入。 盈利预测变 ...

上 市 公 司 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 36.40 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8616.05 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 71.85/31.80 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 619.53 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,701.99 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0829 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -51% -1% 49% 99% HSCEI 新东方-S 社会服务 2025 年 03 月 26 日 新东方-S (09901) ——留学业务持续调整，素养教培支撑增长 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 黄哲 (8621)23297818× huangzhe@swsresearch.com 我们预计新东方 3QFY25 收入 12.25 亿美元，同比增长 1.5%。其中教育业务（含文旅）实现收 入 11.1 亿美元，同比增长 21%。其他业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - The core education business continues to show significant growth, with FY25 Q2 revenue reaching $1.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. Excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce, revenue grew by 31% [1]. - The company reported a strong performance in overseas exam preparation and consulting services, with revenue growth of 21% and 31% respectively. Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students saw a revenue increase of 34.9% [1]. - New educational initiatives maintained robust growth, with a revenue increase of 42.6%. Non-subject tutoring services were launched in approximately 60 cities, attracting around 994,000 registrations this quarter [1]. - The company is focused on improving service quality and operational efficiency while balancing sustainable growth and profitability [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25 H1, the company reported revenue of $2.47 billion, a 25.6% increase year-on-year. Operating profit was $310 million, up 37.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $280 million, reflecting a 41.9% increase [2]. - The Non-GAAP operating profit for FY25 H1 was $330 million, a 10.8% increase, and the Non-GAAP net profit was $300 million, up 25.4% [2]. - The company recorded a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 3.2% for FY25 Q2, an increase of 12 basis points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects FY25 Q3 revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) to be between $1.01 billion and $1.03 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 18% to 21% [4]. Adjusted Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for FY25-27 to $5.2 billion, $6.3 billion, and $7.5 billion respectively. The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY25-27 are $500 million, $620 million, and $750 million respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $68.2 or HKD 53.0, representing an upside of approximately 44.3% and 42.1% respectively [4][5]. Core Insights - The company's FY25Q2 net revenue increased by 19.4% year-over-year to $1.04 billion, with a 31.3% increase in revenue excluding the self-operated products and e-commerce business of Dongfang Zhenxuan [2]. - The overall education business remains strong, although growth in new business segments has slightly slowed down [2]. - The company has a solid cash reserve of $4.8 billion, indicating strong financial health [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25Q2, the company reported a gross margin of 52.0%, a slight increase of 0.6 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - The operating profit margin, excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan's self-operated products and e-commerce, was 2.8%, up by 1.0 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - The company expects FY25Q2 net revenue to be between $1.01 billion and $1.03 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 18% to 21%, which is lower than previous guidance [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 13.3% for FY25, reaching approximately $4.89 billion, with a projected operating profit of $494 million [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow by 28.5% in FY25, reaching $490 million [6]. - The report anticipates a continued strong performance in overseas exam preparation and consulting services, with expected growth of 15% [3]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's current market capitalization stands at $7.725 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.7 at the current stock price of $47.24 [5][6]. - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic uncertainties on high-end services, particularly in overseas exam preparation and one-on-one tutoring [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported FY2025Q2 results with revenue and profit slightly exceeding previous guidance, but business growth is showing divergence, particularly in high-end segments like overseas education and cultural tourism, which are impacted by the macro environment [1] - The company expects a slowdown in revenue growth for FY2025, with projections adjusted from over 30% to over 25% for the year, and guidance for FY25Q3 non-selective business revenue growth set at 18%-21% [3][4] - The company anticipates a total of 1,143 schools and learning centers by FY25Q2, with a steady expansion forecast of 20%-25% for the full year [2] Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company forecasts net profits of $417 million, $555 million, and $672 million for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.06x, 14.32x, and 11.83x [4][9] - FY2025Q2 revenue reached $1.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 2% [8] - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY2025Q2 was $28 million, with a profit margin of 2.7% [8] Business Segments - The high-end business lines, particularly overseas exam preparation and cultural tourism, are experiencing significant growth but are also facing challenges due to macroeconomic factors [8] - K12 business remains resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 42.6% in new educational offerings for FY25Q2, and guidance for FY25Q3 growth exceeding 40% [8] - The cultural tourism segment saw a remarkable year-on-year revenue increase of 233% in FY25Q2, although growth is expected to slow in FY25Q3 due to external influences [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Insights - The core education business continues to show considerable growth, with FY25 Q2 revenue reaching $1.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. Excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce, revenue grew by 31% [1] - The company reported a strong performance in overseas exam preparation and consultation services, with revenue growth of 21% and 31% respectively. Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students saw a revenue increase of 34.9% [1] - New educational initiatives maintained robust growth, with a revenue increase of 42.6%. Non-subject tutoring services were launched in approximately 60 cities, attracting around 994,000 registrations [1] - The company aims to enhance service quality and operational efficiency while balancing sustainable growth and profitability [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25 H1, the company reported revenue of $2.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%. Operating profit was $310 million, up 37.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $280 million, an increase of 41.9% [2] - The company has expanded its self-operated product offerings to 600 SKUs, contributing approximately 37% to total GMV [2] Operational Metrics - The Non-GAAP operating profit for FY25 Q2 was $28 million, a decrease of 45.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $32 million, reflecting a 6.2% increase [1] - The company recorded a net operating cash flow of $310 million for the quarter, with total cash and cash equivalents amounting to approximately $4.8 billion [3] Future Outlook - The company expects FY25 Q3 revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) to be between $1.01 billion and $1.03 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 18% to 21% [4] Adjusted Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25-27 has been adjusted to $5.2 billion, $6.3 billion, and $7.5 billion respectively. The adjusted net profit forecast for FY25-27 is $500 million, $620 million, and $750 million respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901.HK) [4][7] Core Views - The company's FY2025Q2 revenue exceeded guidance, achieving net revenue of $1.039 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.4%. Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan, net revenue reached $894 million, up 31.3% year-over-year [1] - The K12 business remains stable despite seasonal fluctuations, with a 5% quarter-over-quarter growth in learning centers. The company aims for a 20-25% year-over-year increase in teaching point capacity for FY25 [2] - The company expects a slight pressure on profit margins in Q3 due to macroeconomic impacts on high-end education and tourism businesses, while K12 education is anticipated to continue growing [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2025Q2 gross margin reached 52.02%, with operating profit margin at 1.9%. Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan, the operating profit margin was 2.8%, reflecting a year-over-year increase [3] - Deferred revenue as of FY25Q2 was $1.961 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 19.2%, which supports future revenue [4] Business Segments - Traditional education services such as study abroad exam preparation and consulting saw year-over-year growth of 21.1%, 31.0%, and 34.9% respectively, indicating stable performance during the off-season [2] - New business lines, including non-academic services, reported a 42.6% year-over-year revenue increase, with live commerce contributing significantly to overall GMV [2] Future Guidance - For FY2025Q3, the company projects net revenue (excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan) to grow by 18%-21%, with a conservative outlook due to macroeconomic pressures [4] - Full-year revenue for FY2025 is expected to grow by over 25% year-over-year [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Non-GAAP net profits of $501 million, $623 million, and $744 million for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 31.5%, 24.4%, and 19.3% [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of USD 1.039 billion in FY25Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 32 million, up 6.2% year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.1% to USD 36 million [3][4] Revenue Performance - The core education business (excluding selection) saw revenue growth of 31.3% year-on-year, exceeding previous guidance of 25%-28% [4] - Revenue from overseas exam preparation and consulting services grew by 21.1% and 31.0% year-on-year, respectively, with the consulting business benefiting from an increase in 2+2 projects and early revenue recognition [4] - Revenue from adult and college exam preparation services increased by 34.9% year-on-year, supported by a more favorable competitive landscape due to the exit of several institutions from the market [4] - New education business revenue grew by 42.6% year-on-year, with non-subject tutoring services expanding in nearly 60 cities and enrollment increasing by 26.5% to 994,000 [4] Guidance and Profitability - For FY25Q3, the company expects revenue (excluding selection) to be between USD 1.0073 billion and USD 1.0325 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18%-21% [5] - The company has adjusted its full-year revenue growth guidance (excluding selection) to 25% in RMB terms, down from a previous estimate of 30% [5] - The gross margin for FY25Q2 improved by 0.6 percentage points to 52.0%, while the Non-GAAP operating margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 2.7% due to pressures from new tourism and selection businesses [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report lowers the net profit forecast for FY2025-2027 to USD 413 million, USD 555 million, and USD 712 million, respectively, reflecting reductions of 13%, 12%, and 11% [6] - The projected EPS for FY2025-2027 is USD 0.25, USD 0.34, and USD 0.44, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18x, 13x, and 10x [6] - The report expresses optimism about the education training industry's outlook and the company's competitive advantages, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company's core business performance exceeded expectations in Q2 FY2025, with revenue of $1.039 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit of $31.93 million, up 6.2% year-over-year [1]. - The core business revenue, which includes education and cultural tourism, grew by 31.3% year-over-year, reaching $894 million, surpassing previous guidance [2]. - The company anticipates a slowdown in growth for its overseas business in the second half of FY2025, projecting a revenue increase of approximately 15% for overseas study-related services due to rising costs and changing parental attitudes [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 FY2025 revenue was $1.039 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 19.4%. Operating profit was $19.26 million, down 9.8% year-over-year, while net profit was $31.93 million, up 6.2% year-over-year [1]. - The core business (education + cultural tourism) revenue reached $894 million, a year-over-year increase of 31.3%, exceeding the upper limit of previous guidance [2]. Business Segments - The overseas examination and consultation revenue grew by 21.1% and 31.0% year-over-year, while domestic examination revenue increased by 34.9% [2]. - The K9-related new business saw a year-over-year growth of 42.6%, driven by strong demand and stable capacity expansion [2]. Future Guidance - For Q3 FY2025, the company expects core business revenue to be between $1.0073 billion and $1.0325 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 18-21% [3]. - The anticipated slowdown in overseas business growth is attributed to high demand fatigue and rising overseas study costs [3]. Investment Projections - The report projects total revenue for FY2025 to be $4.873 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% over three years [5]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be $475 million for FY2025, with a CAGR of about 20% over three years [5].