Workflow
百胜中国:Q2降本增效,利润超预期
09987YUM CHINA(09987) 国金证券·2024-08-07 00:01

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected PE ratio of 14.3X for 2024E, 13.0X for 2025E, and 11.8X for 2026E [1] Core Views - The company's 2Q24 revenue reached 2.68billion,a12.68 billion, a 1% YoY increase (4% excluding currency impact), with core operating profit at 280 million (+12% excluding currency impact) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 210million(+8210 million (+8%, +11% excluding currency impact) [1] - Store expansion supported revenue growth, with net new stores contributing 8% to system sales, while same-store sales declined by 4% due to demand pressure [1] - The company's total number of stores reached 15,423 by 2Q24, with a net increase of 401 stores in the quarter [1] - KFC's same-store sales declined by 3% in 2Q24, with a restaurant margin of 16.2% (-1.1pct, -0.6pct excluding comparable items) [1] - Pizza Hut's same-store sales declined by 8% in 2Q24, but restaurant margin improved to 13.2% (+0.8pct, +1.1pct excluding comparable items) [1] - The company returned 994 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 1H24, with plans to distribute 250millionincashdividendsand250 million in cash dividends and 1.25 billion in buybacks for the full year 2024 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 11.311billionin2024Eto11.311 billion in 2024E to 13.483 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 8.78% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 874millionin2024Eto874 million in 2024E to 1.059 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 9.78% [3] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 15.16% in 2024E to 18.39% in 2026E [3] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 14.31X in 2024E to 11.82X in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [3] Operational Highlights - KFC's K-Coffee store count increased from around 100 in March to approximately 300 by July, leveraging shared kitchen and labor resources for higher efficiency [1] - Pizza Hut's WOW stores, offering lower-priced products, expanded to over 100 locations by July, targeting cost-conscious customers [1] - The company achieved significant cost optimization through automation, labor savings, and improved management efficiency, with overall restaurant margin at 15.5% and management expense ratio at 5.0% in 2Q24 [1]