Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Property (06049.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - Poly Property is positioned as a leading enterprise in the property management industry, benefiting from strong delivery resources from its parent company, Poly Developments. The company is expected to see continuous growth in property management revenue and profits due to an increasing proportion of third-party projects and an industry-leading growth rate in managed area [5][12] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 1.56 billion, CNY 1.76 billion, and CNY 1.98 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of CNY 2.82, CNY 3.18, and CNY 3.58. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 8.6, 7.7, and 6.8 times for the respective years [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Strong Major Shareholder and Incentives - Poly Property is a subsidiary of Poly Developments, which holds a stable and significant shareholding of 72.28% as of the end of 2023, ensuring operational continuity and stability [12][14] - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan, with the first batch of restricted shares unlocking in May 2024, which is expected to enhance performance and long-term stability [15][17] 2. Growth in Property Management Scale and Quality - As of the end of 2023, Poly Property's managed contract area and managed area reached 922.2 million square meters and 719.6 million square meters, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 19.5% and 24.9% [5][20] - The proportion of third-party projects in the managed area has increased, with third-party project revenue accounting for 41.1% of total property management revenue in 2023, growing by 27.6% year-on-year [20][25] 3. Community Value-Added Services - The company's value-added services revenue decreased to CNY 2.816 billion in 2023, down 8.1% year-on-year, but the overall gross margin improved by 6.4 percentage points to 38.4% [5][31] - Community asset management services generated CNY 923 million in revenue, up 6.8% year-on-year, while community life services saw a decline of 13.9% to CNY 1.893 billion due to market conditions [49][52] 4. Profit Growth and Dividend Policy - The company's net profit reached CNY 1.38 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.0%, with a steady improvement in gross margin and a dividend payout ratio of 40% [5][6] - Operating cash flow has consistently exceeded net profit before tax, indicating strong financial health and shareholder returns [5][6] 5. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company reported operating revenue of CNY 15.07 billion in 2023, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, with property management services accounting for 67.4% of total revenue [6][18] - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8.6, 7.7, and 6.8 times, respectively, indicating an attractive valuation compared to peers [5][6]
保利物业：港股公司深度报告：质效双增助力多业态并进，多维增值完善全周期布局