Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in the second quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.25%, while profitability improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1][5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product matrix in the pre-mixed cocktail segment and is optimistic about the growth potential of its liquor business [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.628 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 402 million yuan, down 8.36% [1][5]. - In the second quarter of 2024, total revenue was 826 million yuan, a decline of 7.25%, with a net profit of 233 million yuan, down 7.28% [1][5]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 70.1%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure optimization and reduced commercial discounts [6][7]. Business Segment Analysis - The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated revenue of 1.431 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, with sales volume down 8.7% due to weak consumer demand [1][5]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in the pre-mixed cocktail segment to cater to a broader consumer base and different consumption scenarios [6][7]. - The liquor business is expected to become a new growth driver, with plans for new whiskey products to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2024 [6][7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 3.309 billion yuan, 3.592 billion yuan, and 3.903 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting slower growth in the context of a weak economic recovery [7][8]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is adjusted to 818 million yuan, 904 million yuan, and 1.007 billion yuan, respectively [7][8]. - The company maintains a strong competitive position in the pre-mixed cocktail market, with significant growth potential in the medium to long term, hence the "Outperform the Market" rating is upheld [7].
百润股份:第二季度收入承压,盈利能力环比改善