麦当劳：Q2业绩低于预期，低价套餐提振销售

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking it as the first rating given [6]. Core Views - The company maintains its store opening pace as planned at the beginning of the year, but same-store sales are under pressure, leading to flat revenue year-on-year for Q2 2024. The introduction of low-priced meal packages is expected to boost sales in the coming period, although the same-store sales outlook for the year has been downgraded due to first-half performance. Material cost inflation has decreased, but labor cost pressures remain high, impacting profit margins. The low-priced package strategy may attract more customers in the second half of the year, and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. could positively affect the consumer environment. Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are $25.99 billion, $27.33 billion, and $28.89 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.9%, 5.2%, and 5.7% respectively. Net profit estimates are $8.42 billion, $9.00 billion, and $9.54 billion, reflecting a decline of 0.6% in 2024, followed by growth of 6.9% and 6.1% in the subsequent years. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23, 21, and 20 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][4][6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of $25.49 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. The projected revenue for 2024 is $25.99 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 1.9%. The net profit for 2023 was $8.47 billion, with a significant year-on-year increase of 37.1%. However, the forecast for 2024 indicates a slight decline in net profit to $8.42 billion, a decrease of 0.6%. The operating profit margin is expected to improve gradually from 45.7% in 2023 to 47.0% by 2026 [3][4][7]. Q2 Performance - In Q2 2024, the company's revenue was $6.49 billion, a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year. The breakdown of revenue sources shows self-operated revenue at $2.46 billion, franchise revenue at $3.94 billion, and other revenue at $0.09 billion. The operating profit for the quarter was $2.92 billion, down 5.9% year-on-year, and net profit was $2.02 billion, reflecting a decrease of 12.5%. The net profit margin for the quarter was 31.2%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous year [4][5][6]. Store Expansion - The company continues to expand its store count, with 13,484 locations in the U.S., 10,333 in International Operated Markets (IOM), and 18,589 in International Developmental Licensees (IDL) as of Q2 2024. This represents an increase of 27, 70, and 487 stores respectively compared to the end of 2023 [5][6].