Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained as of August 7, 2024 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the collagen peptide industry is experiencing a supply-demand resonance, creating an incremental market. The growth of the company's cosmetic business is deemed sustainable, supported by a strong product matrix and brand reputation [4][5][16]. Industry Summary - The cosmetic industry is seeing an increase in supply, with leading brands incorporating recombinant collagen as a core ingredient in their products. This trend is expected to enhance consumer education and demand penetration [4][8]. - In the medical aesthetics sector, the company is developing a pipeline of collagen products that can cater to various indications, similar to the initial expansion seen with hyaluronic acid injections. This is anticipated to elevate the industry's ceiling as new applications emerge [5][8]. Company Summary - The company's competitive edge in the recombinant collagen cosmetic sector is built on its raw material research and brand scale. The sustainability of its cosmetic business growth relies on the repeat purchase of existing products and the synergistic effects of new products [5][12]. - From 2021 to 2023, the company's main revenue growth driver has been its "可复美" brand, particularly the collagen peptide stick launched in 2021. The report notes a trend of decreasing marginal sales expense ratio, indicating a solid customer base and brand loyalty [5][12]. - The second brand, "可丽金," is entering a growth phase, with key products expected to gain traction in the expanding cream category [5][12]. Investment Logic - The report concludes that the company is well-positioned in the incremental market for recombinant collagen, with a sustainable commercialization capability. The projected adjusted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 1.94 billion, 2.43 billion, and 3.02 billion respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 20, 16, and 13 times [5][16].
再读巨子生物：行业供需双升，商业化能力领先