浦发银行：困境反转，盈利改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 8.31 CNY and a reasonable value of 10.97 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company has shown a turnaround in its performance, with a significant improvement in profitability. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.64% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, outperforming expectations [2][3]. - Revenue for the first half of 2024 decreased by 3.27% year-on-year, but when excluding the impact of a one-time factor from the previous year, it showed a growth of 1.45%. The recovery in revenue growth is attributed to increased credit issuance, improved liability structure, and expected marginal contributions from the bond market [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, total assets and total loans grew by 3.6% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively. The loan growth rate significantly outpaced total asset growth, contributing positively to the interest margin [2]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of H1 2024 was 1.41%, a decrease of 4 basis points from Q1 2024. The provision coverage ratio increased to 175.37%, indicating improved asset quality [2][3]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to continue its recovery, with projected net profit growth rates of 14.90% and 8.30% for 2024 and 2025, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.25 CNY and 1.37 CNY for the same years [3]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 6.62X for 2024 and 6.05X for 2025, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to be 0.38X and 0.36X for the same periods [3]. Risk Management - The company has been actively managing risks by focusing on reducing existing non-performing assets while controlling new risks. This strategy has led to a decrease in credit costs, contributing positively to profitability [2][3].