山西汾酒：公司更新：疾风劲草，汾享神州

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a strong start in Q1 2024 with a revenue growth of 20.94% and a net profit growth of 29.95%, indicating a positive sales momentum and healthy inventory levels [2] - The market share of Shanxi Fenjiu in the clear aroma segment has significantly increased, with expectations of further growth potential in the long term [2][8] - The company demonstrates strong resilience through its diverse product matrix, which allows it to navigate market fluctuations effectively [2][12] - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a model for potential "15% growth + 4% dividend" strategy, with a current P/E ratio below 18x and a potential for increased dividends [3][17] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,928 million RMB in 2023 to 54,540 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.82% [1] - Net profit is expected to rise from 10,438 million RMB in 2023 to 19,825 million RMB by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 22.30% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.56 RMB in 2023 to 16.25 RMB by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] - The P/E ratios for the upcoming years are projected to be 17.60x in 2024, 14.38x in 2025, and 11.75x in 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation [1] Market Position and Strategy - Shanxi Fenjiu's market share in the clear aroma segment has grown from 16.1% in 2019 to 35.5% in 2023, showcasing its competitive strength [8][9] - The company has successfully expanded its presence in various provinces, with significant sales growth in regions like Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong [14] - The product mix, including high-end and mid-range offerings, enhances the company's ability to adapt to market demands and consumer preferences [12][17]