Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of cobalt, copper, nickel, and lithium products, positioning itself as a global leader in these sectors. In 2023, the company produced 15,595 tons of cobalt, a year-on-year increase of 601%, and 49,646 tons of copper, a year-on-year increase of 78% [4] - The Congo Tengyuan project is advancing, which will significantly enhance the company's copper and cobalt production capacity. By the end of 2023, the project had achieved an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of copper and 10,000 tons of cobalt intermediate products, with expectations to reach 60,000 tons of copper capacity after the third phase [4] - The company's domestic production capacity for cobalt and nickel continues to improve, with ongoing expansions in lithium and recycling operations. The company has initiated projects to produce 40,000 tons of ternary precursors and 10,000 tons of cobalt oxide, which are expected to enhance performance stability and competitiveness [4] - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with estimates ranging from 358 million to 465 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 343% to 476% [4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5,543 million yuan in 2023 to 10,868 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.9% [6][10] - The net profit is expected to increase from 378 million yuan in 2023 to 1,259 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.28 yuan in 2023 to 4.27 yuan in 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [6][10] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 2.48, 3.07, and 4.27 yuan per share for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. Based on a competitive advantage in global resource allocation, a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19-21 times is suggested for 2024, corresponding to a fair value range of 47.12 to 52.08 yuan per share [5]
腾远钴业：立足铜钴，全面布局能源金属