Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on the expected revenue growth and profitability improvements [1]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 7.11 to 7.17 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% to 10%, with an adjusted net profit of about 330 to 340 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of approximately 4.6% to 4.7% [1]. - The company's store expansion is a key driver for revenue growth, with an expected net increase of about 1,000 stores in 2024. However, short-term average transaction value (ATV) is under pressure due to weak domestic consumption and longer replacement cycles for products like tires and engine oil [1]. - Effective cost control and improved management efficiency are expected to enhance profitability, with a projected gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points in 2024 [1]. - The independent automotive aftermarket is expanding, and the company, as a leading Independent Aftermarket (IAM) player, is well-positioned to benefit from this growth [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 13.6 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 14.89 billion yuan in 2024, 16.68 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.76 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 18%, 9%, 12%, and 13% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 670.3 million yuan in 2023, with a significant drop to 85.2 million yuan in 2024, followed by recoveries to 135.7 million yuan in 2025 and 206 million yuan in 2026 [2]. Financial Ratios - The projected P/E ratios are 1.24 for 2023, 13.62 for 2024, 8.56 for 2025, and 5.64 for 2026, indicating a significant valuation change over the forecast period [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 24.7% in 2023 to 30.55% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 49.28% in 2023 to 10.98% in 2026 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its first-mover advantage and scale effects in the IAM sector, with a focus on product quality and user demand [1]. - The company is enhancing its brand portfolio and increasing the proportion of its own brands, which is expected to cater to the demand for cost-effective products [1].
途虎-W：24H1前瞻，业绩有望拾级向上，ATV短期波动，长期成长空间可期